Proof of Stake

A Successful Shapella: The Ethereum Merge Finale

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 4/19/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

The Ethereum hard fork dubbed Shapella (originally Shanghai, then combined with its additional name Capella to form “Shapella”) was successfully completed one week ago on April 12. The fork executed almost perfectly after several testnet trials and shadow forks. While this engineering feat was not celebrated by the mainstream, it is still a marvel that Ethereum achieves its technological upgrades in a decentralized, automated manner with zero downtime and zero need for community intervention. Shapella was a roaring success.​

Although the Merge was the “main course” that drastically altered Ethereum’s economic and environmental sustainability by switching the blockchain (in mid-flight) to Proof of Stake, Shapella was effectively the “dessert” that consummated the Merge upgrade.​

Proof of Stake is arguably a more long-term sustainable model for a public blockchain, as it consumes fewer resources while allowing more access for the general population to act as validators to secure the chain. However, the Merge resulted in a one-way street. ​

Proof of Stake Ethereum could not reach its potential of critical mass if the ability to unstake was nonexistent, which was the case since the launch of Ethereum’s Beacon Chain in Dec 2020. Shapella finally enabled this withdrawal feature. ​

Although over 1 million ETH (7% of the total staked ETH) have entered the withdrawal exit queue, ETH price has been resilient (in USD and BTC terms) since Shapella. Perhaps withdrawals have actually de-risked ETH for institutional players, unlocking the potential for staking growth.​

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The Ethereum hard fork dubbed Shapella (originally Shanghai, then combined with its additional name Capella to form “Shapella”) was successfully completed one week ago on April 12. The fork executed almost perfectly after several testnet trials and shadow forks. While this engineering feat was not celebrated by the mainstream, it is still a marvel that Ethereum achieves its technological upgrades in a decentralized, automated manner with zero downtime and zero need for community intervention. Shapella was a roaring success.​

Although the Merge was the “main course” that drastically altered Ethereum’s economic and environmental sustainability by switching the blockchain (in mid-flight) to Proof of Stake, Shapella was effectively the “dessert” that consummated the Merge upgrade.​

Proof of Stake is arguably a more long-term sustainable model for a public blockchain, as it consumes fewer resources while allowing more access for the general population to act as validators to secure the chain. However, the Merge resulted in a one-way street. ​

Proof of Stake Ethereum could not reach its potential of critical mass if the ability to unstake was nonexistent, which was the case since the launch of Ethereum’s Beacon Chain in Dec 2020. Shapella finally enabled this withdrawal feature. ​

Although over 1 million ETH (7% of the total staked ETH) have entered the withdrawal exit queue, ETH price has been resilient (in USD and BTC terms) since Shapella. Perhaps withdrawals have actually de-risked ETH for institutional players, unlocking the potential for staking growth.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • The entire Ethereum ecosystem saw an uptick in activity over the past week. Although withdrawals are gas-less transactions, overall activity on the Ethereum network was higher, with the average gas price up 20% to 36 gwei from 30 gwei the previous week. This corresponded with a net ETH burn of 12k ETH over the past week, up from 7k ETH burned the previous week as ETH continues to display deflationary monetary policy.​
  • ETH price action was also notable. Despite the significant amount of ETH queueing for unstaking, ETH price jumped from $1900 the previous week to a high of over $2100 before drifting back to just below $2000. ETH also gained against BTC, with the ETHBTC ratio jumping to 0.067 from 0.062 pre-Shapella. Although we may see some selling pressure from unstaked ETH, the initial price reaction post withdrawals has been constructive.​
Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • For the first time in ETH’s history, the total amount of staked ETH was lower week over week (which was inevitable given that unstaking is now enabled). The aggregate staked ETH reached north of 18mm (over 15% of ETH supply) pre-Shapella and is now slightly lower at 17.9mm. Interestingly, ETH flows continued to enter the staking queue to counterbalance the withdrawal flow, which is a phenomenon we will explore in the next 2 slides.​
  • Due to the uptick in ETH fees WoW, the annualized fee revenue sits at 1.36mm ETH, corresponding to a staking yield just north of 6%. Now that ETH unstaking is live, we may see more solo validator staking rather than just liquid staking products (like Lido and Coinbase). Solo validators will capture the full ETH staking yield, while Lido etc. take 10%+ of staking rewards. Individual staking will also help ETH’s staking diversity.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Withdrawal Activity Since Shapella

  • Withdrawals went live around 6PM EST on 4/12. Since then, 1.077mm ETH have entered the withdrawal queue for redistribution to holders. Although the amount of ETH that can exit per day is limited (around 57k per day), we can see the backlog of ETH that has requested withdrawals on chain.​
  • Most estimates called for over 1mm ETH to be unstaked post Shanghai, simply because staked ETH has been locked since December 2020 and has seen a wild range of markets (from the 2021 bull market to the collapses in 2022). This number could continue to increase, with some entities that may be forced to exit (e.g., Kraken would need to exit US staking operations). However, unstaking does not equal sell pressure, and price action has shaken off the impending backlog of ETH in line for withdrawals.​

Figure: ETH Withdrawal Amount
Source: Source: https://beaconcha.in/validators/withdrawals

Post-Shanghai Scenarios - Staking Deposit and Withdrawal Flow

  • The dashboard below shows net staking flows since the Shapella upgrade. It is interesting to note that staking deposits continued to trickle in post upgrade. Although net flows resulted in a slight decrease in staked ETH (exacerbated by one bigger withdrawal spike on April 15), it is entirely possible that the amount of ETH coming into the staking ecosystem could exceed the ETH exiting, as ETH staking is now potentially de-risked for institutions with an exit mechanism in place.​
  • Although Shapella went relatively unnoticed in the broader macro ecosystem, it cannot be overstated how significant this hard fork is for the crypto ecosystem. The Merge, which had been in Ethereum’s roadmap since 2016, has finally been consummated with a complete switch to PoS. The engine of the ETH blockchain is now in its final form and ready to scale.​
Figure: ETH Deposit and Withdrawal
Source: Nansen Dashboard

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

The Ethereum hard fork dubbed Shapella (originally Shanghai, then combined with its additional name Capella to form “Shapella”) was successfully completed one week ago on April 12. The fork executed almost perfectly after several testnet trials and shadow forks. While this engineering feat was not celebrated by the mainstream, it is still a marvel that Ethereum achieves its technological upgrades in a decentralized, automated manner with zero downtime and zero need for community intervention. Shapella was a roaring success.​

Although the Merge was the “main course” that drastically altered Ethereum’s economic and environmental sustainability by switching the blockchain (in mid-flight) to Proof of Stake, Shapella was effectively the “dessert” that consummated the Merge upgrade.​

Proof of Stake is arguably a more long-term sustainable model for a public blockchain, as it consumes fewer resources while allowing more access for the general population to act as validators to secure the chain. However, the Merge resulted in a one-way street. ​

Proof of Stake Ethereum could not reach its potential of critical mass if the ability to unstake was nonexistent, which was the case since the launch of Ethereum’s Beacon Chain in Dec 2020. Shapella finally enabled this withdrawal feature. ​

Although over 1 million ETH (7% of the total staked ETH) have entered the withdrawal exit queue, ETH price has been resilient (in USD and BTC terms) since Shapella. Perhaps withdrawals have actually de-risked ETH for institutional players, unlocking the potential for staking growth.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • The entire Ethereum ecosystem saw an uptick in activity over the past week. Although withdrawals are gas-less transactions, overall activity on the Ethereum network was higher, with the average gas price up 20% to 36 gwei from 30 gwei the previous week. This corresponded with a net ETH burn of 12k ETH over the past week, up from 7k ETH burned the previous week as ETH continues to display deflationary monetary policy.​
  • ETH price action was also notable. Despite the significant amount of ETH queueing for unstaking, ETH price jumped from $1900 the previous week to a high of over $2100 before drifting back to just below $2000. ETH also gained against BTC, with the ETHBTC ratio jumping to 0.067 from 0.062 pre-Shapella. Although we may see some selling pressure from unstaked ETH, the initial price reaction post withdrawals has been constructive.​
Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • For the first time in ETH’s history, the total amount of staked ETH was lower week over week (which was inevitable given that unstaking is now enabled). The aggregate staked ETH reached north of 18mm (over 15% of ETH supply) pre-Shapella and is now slightly lower at 17.9mm. Interestingly, ETH flows continued to enter the staking queue to counterbalance the withdrawal flow, which is a phenomenon we will explore in the next 2 slides.​
  • Due to the uptick in ETH fees WoW, the annualized fee revenue sits at 1.36mm ETH, corresponding to a staking yield just north of 6%. Now that ETH unstaking is live, we may see more solo validator staking rather than just liquid staking products (like Lido and Coinbase). Solo validators will capture the full ETH staking yield, while Lido etc. take 10%+ of staking rewards. Individual staking will also help ETH’s staking diversity.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Withdrawal Activity Since Shapella

  • Withdrawals went live around 6PM EST on 4/12. Since then, 1.077mm ETH have entered the withdrawal queue for redistribution to holders. Although the amount of ETH that can exit per day is limited (around 57k per day), we can see the backlog of ETH that has requested withdrawals on chain.​
  • Most estimates called for over 1mm ETH to be unstaked post Shanghai, simply because staked ETH has been locked since December 2020 and has seen a wild range of markets (from the 2021 bull market to the collapses in 2022). This number could continue to increase, with some entities that may be forced to exit (e.g., Kraken would need to exit US staking operations). However, unstaking does not equal sell pressure, and price action has shaken off the impending backlog of ETH in line for withdrawals.​

Figure: ETH Withdrawal Amount
Source: Source: https://beaconcha.in/validators/withdrawals

Post-Shanghai Scenarios - Staking Deposit and Withdrawal Flow

  • The dashboard below shows net staking flows since the Shapella upgrade. It is interesting to note that staking deposits continued to trickle in post upgrade. Although net flows resulted in a slight decrease in staked ETH (exacerbated by one bigger withdrawal spike on April 15), it is entirely possible that the amount of ETH coming into the staking ecosystem could exceed the ETH exiting, as ETH staking is now potentially de-risked for institutions with an exit mechanism in place.​
  • Although Shapella went relatively unnoticed in the broader macro ecosystem, it cannot be overstated how significant this hard fork is for the crypto ecosystem. The Merge, which had been in Ethereum’s roadmap since 2016, has finally been consummated with a complete switch to PoS. The engine of the ETH blockchain is now in its final form and ready to scale.​
Figure: ETH Deposit and Withdrawal
Source: Nansen Dashboard

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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