Proof of Stake

Ethereum + Altcoins: A Change in the Winds?

BitOoda Ethereum Market Research, 7/14/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

Although most of 2023 has been focused on Bitcoin and BTC dominance, the last week (more specifically, yesterday) marked a deviation from the Bitcoin-only trend, which could signal a potential change in the winds for the crypto industry in the US. At a high level, without getting into legal nuance, a landmark decision was reached in US District Court in the multiyear case between Ripple and the SEC. While the ruling was complex and the legal interpretation is beyond the scope of this markets-focused piece, the highlevel takeaway is that the XRP token (Ripple’s native token) being sold on public exchanges may not have violated federal securities laws.

Although this ruling marks a potential beginning, rather than an end, to the clarification of how the crypto industry can operate in the US, we saw a major relief rally in altcoins – namely major altcoins that had been named securities in SEC actions over the past few months. The most notable of these altcoins – which we will cover in this report – are Solana (up 19% and then as much as 23% the following trading session), and Polygon’s token MATIC (up 18%. These tokens likely outperformed the rest of the market due to mean reversion from selling pressure from SEC actions classifying both as securities. Indeed, platforms like Robinhood de-listed both tokens and sold on behalf of customers upon the SEC actions. Although yesterday’s ruling was favorable for nonBTC crypto tokens, it was not necessarily a watershed win, and there could be ongoing debate, appeals, and volatility around altcoins and their status as securities or non-securities. On a more benign note, the major crypto assets – BTC and ETH – were up 3.5% and 7% respectively following the XRP ruling. Both have seen lower volatility than altcoins and are considered “blue chip” – hence the dampened moves higher.

Another bellwether metric for altcoins is the ETH / BTC ratio, which moved marginally higher after yesterday’s news, from the 0.061 level to ~0.064. We will examine the significance of this ratio in the report as well. Ultimately, the question is how much of a paradigm shift occurred with yesterday’s decision? Many in the crypto space are calling for the onset of a new bull market, while the more nuanced analysis points to an ongoing court and regulatory process that could take years. The answer may lie in the middle – yesterday’s action highlighted inconsistency in how crypto is treated in the US, which will need to be addressed by Congress. Therefore, a call to action for comprehensive crypto legislation may gain steam. However, this process may take longer than most are hoping.

In the meantime, the Ethereum ecosystem remains robust. Although we take a detour this week from exploring the technical advancements and new applications that use ETH, the network continues to attract new projects, new scaling mechanisms, and additional Lindy effects as the base infrastructure for the global digital economy.

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Although most of 2023 has been focused on Bitcoin and BTC dominance, the last week (more specifically, yesterday) marked a deviation from the Bitcoin-only trend, which could signal a potential change in the winds for the crypto industry in the US. At a high level, without getting into legal nuance, a landmark decision was reached in US District Court in the multiyear case between Ripple and the SEC. While the ruling was complex and the legal interpretation is beyond the scope of this markets-focused piece, the highlevel takeaway is that the XRP token (Ripple’s native token) being sold on public exchanges may not have violated federal securities laws.

Although this ruling marks a potential beginning, rather than an end, to the clarification of how the crypto industry can operate in the US, we saw a major relief rally in altcoins – namely major altcoins that had been named securities in SEC actions over the past few months. The most notable of these altcoins – which we will cover in this report – are Solana (up 19% and then as much as 23% the following trading session), and Polygon’s token MATIC (up 18%. These tokens likely outperformed the rest of the market due to mean reversion from selling pressure from SEC actions classifying both as securities. Indeed, platforms like Robinhood de-listed both tokens and sold on behalf of customers upon the SEC actions. Although yesterday’s ruling was favorable for nonBTC crypto tokens, it was not necessarily a watershed win, and there could be ongoing debate, appeals, and volatility around altcoins and their status as securities or non-securities. On a more benign note, the major crypto assets – BTC and ETH – were up 3.5% and 7% respectively following the XRP ruling. Both have seen lower volatility than altcoins and are considered “blue chip” – hence the dampened moves higher.

Another bellwether metric for altcoins is the ETH / BTC ratio, which moved marginally higher after yesterday’s news, from the 0.061 level to ~0.064. We will examine the significance of this ratio in the report as well. Ultimately, the question is how much of a paradigm shift occurred with yesterday’s decision? Many in the crypto space are calling for the onset of a new bull market, while the more nuanced analysis points to an ongoing court and regulatory process that could take years. The answer may lie in the middle – yesterday’s action highlighted inconsistency in how crypto is treated in the US, which will need to be addressed by Congress. Therefore, a call to action for comprehensive crypto legislation may gain steam. However, this process may take longer than most are hoping.

In the meantime, the Ethereum ecosystem remains robust. Although we take a detour this week from exploring the technical advancements and new applications that use ETH, the network continues to attract new projects, new scaling mechanisms, and additional Lindy effects as the base infrastructure for the global digital economy.

ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The amount of ETH staked continues to move in a one-way trend – higher, with 21.2mm ETH staked as of this week, representing almost 18% of the total supply. Moreover, since the Shanghai upgrade that enabled staking withdrawals, we have seen an enormous imbalance in amount of ETH queuing for staking vs amount of ETH queuing for withdrawals.
  • With the current snapshot, there are 84,428 validators (2.7mm ETH) in line to stake, which has created a wait time of 36 days! On the flip side, there are only 25 validators (800 ETH) queuing to unstake, resulting in a 16 minute wait. This imbalance has existed since Shanghai.
  • Finally, despite low annualized fees on the ETH network, ETH remains slightly deflationary, with inflation of -0.09%

Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

Ethereum Price Action

  • ETH’s price action yesterday reflected the positive sentiment from the XRP ruling, with ETH closing ~7% higher on the day. ETH had its first close above $2000 since April and has been in a mild uptrend all year, with ETH up around 66% on the year.
  • However, it should be noted that ETH’s price performance has lagged both other native crypto assets like BTC (+89% YTD) and several crypto equites(COIN stock is up nearly 200% YTD; MSTR stock is up 224% YTD). And several bellwether tech stocks (NVDA, META, AAPL) to which we can compare ETH in terms of being a tech platform are up much more than ETH YTD.
  • While relative performance has been somewhat disappointing, ETH could see a catchup move in the next bull market as the ETH ecosystem grows.

Figure: ETH Price
Chart Source: Tradingview


ETH / BTC Price Action

  • Unsurprisingly, since BTC has outperformed ETH so far this year, ETH / BTC has been trending slightly lower, from a high of 0.078 to a low of ~0.06.
  • Much of the recent move lower in ETH / BTC has been due to the potential for a BTC ETF, which catalyzed the BTC dominance rally and sent all altcoins lower vs BTC (until yesterday’s XRP decision).
  • We believe ETH has the potential to flip BTC on many merits: (1) an institutional grade diversified crypto asset with a staking yield, (2)sustainable transaction fees that can make ETH’s monetary policy deflationary, and (3) scalability of ETH as a tech platform. However, for now BTC remains king, and ETH’s time to shine could be when there is more regulatory clarity and more momentum for a true crypto bull market.
Figure: ETH / BTC Chart
Source: Tradingview

Solana Update

  • We have not mentioned Solana much in previous reports, as we have focused on the innovation in the Ethereum ecosystem. Solana is a competing Layer One blockchain that makes different tradeoffs than Ethereum in order to achieve higher scalability and performance. Namely, Solana requires much more hardware-intensive nodes, many of which a rerun in data centers, for increased performance. This makes the tradeoff of lower decentralization (fewer nodes) for higher performance.
  • Solana is a worthy competitor to ETH which has helped push the ETH ecosystem to scale faster (via Layer Two technology). Solana was also dragged down in 2022 by pressure from FTX. Its rebound has been nothing short of spectacular, ad it is up 184% YTD and 30%+ since the XRP ruling, briefly touching $32 (its pre-FTX selloff level) before retracing a bit.
Figure: Solana Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

Polygon Update

  • Finally, the last altcoin we will look at this week is Polygon, whose native token is MATIC. Polygon has had an interesting journey, starting as an alternative Layer One (Polygon Proof of Stake chain), with the expressed intention of converting to an Ethereum L2 once the technology was ready.
  • Polygon has lived up to its promise and has developed several zero knowledge L2 solutions for Ethereum. It has also onboarded numerous institutions and brands into the crypto ecosystem. Nevertheless, the token has been under pressure for most of the year and, after yesterday’s ~20%move, is up 12% YTD.
  • Like ETH, Polygon has lagged despite a massive improvement in technology. As L2 ecosystems grow this year, we could see a mean reversion move.
Figure: Polygon Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or throughhttp://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge. BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such.BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services. BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision. The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction. The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment. The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance.

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.

Copyright 2023 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.

Although most of 2023 has been focused on Bitcoin and BTC dominance, the last week (more specifically, yesterday) marked a deviation from the Bitcoin-only trend, which could signal a potential change in the winds for the crypto industry in the US. At a high level, without getting into legal nuance, a landmark decision was reached in US District Court in the multiyear case between Ripple and the SEC. While the ruling was complex and the legal interpretation is beyond the scope of this markets-focused piece, the highlevel takeaway is that the XRP token (Ripple’s native token) being sold on public exchanges may not have violated federal securities laws.

Although this ruling marks a potential beginning, rather than an end, to the clarification of how the crypto industry can operate in the US, we saw a major relief rally in altcoins – namely major altcoins that had been named securities in SEC actions over the past few months. The most notable of these altcoins – which we will cover in this report – are Solana (up 19% and then as much as 23% the following trading session), and Polygon’s token MATIC (up 18%. These tokens likely outperformed the rest of the market due to mean reversion from selling pressure from SEC actions classifying both as securities. Indeed, platforms like Robinhood de-listed both tokens and sold on behalf of customers upon the SEC actions. Although yesterday’s ruling was favorable for nonBTC crypto tokens, it was not necessarily a watershed win, and there could be ongoing debate, appeals, and volatility around altcoins and their status as securities or non-securities. On a more benign note, the major crypto assets – BTC and ETH – were up 3.5% and 7% respectively following the XRP ruling. Both have seen lower volatility than altcoins and are considered “blue chip” – hence the dampened moves higher.

Another bellwether metric for altcoins is the ETH / BTC ratio, which moved marginally higher after yesterday’s news, from the 0.061 level to ~0.064. We will examine the significance of this ratio in the report as well. Ultimately, the question is how much of a paradigm shift occurred with yesterday’s decision? Many in the crypto space are calling for the onset of a new bull market, while the more nuanced analysis points to an ongoing court and regulatory process that could take years. The answer may lie in the middle – yesterday’s action highlighted inconsistency in how crypto is treated in the US, which will need to be addressed by Congress. Therefore, a call to action for comprehensive crypto legislation may gain steam. However, this process may take longer than most are hoping.

In the meantime, the Ethereum ecosystem remains robust. Although we take a detour this week from exploring the technical advancements and new applications that use ETH, the network continues to attract new projects, new scaling mechanisms, and additional Lindy effects as the base infrastructure for the global digital economy.

ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The amount of ETH staked continues to move in a one-way trend – higher, with 21.2mm ETH staked as of this week, representing almost 18% of the total supply. Moreover, since the Shanghai upgrade that enabled staking withdrawals, we have seen an enormous imbalance in amount of ETH queuing for staking vs amount of ETH queuing for withdrawals.
  • With the current snapshot, there are 84,428 validators (2.7mm ETH) in line to stake, which has created a wait time of 36 days! On the flip side, there are only 25 validators (800 ETH) queuing to unstake, resulting in a 16 minute wait. This imbalance has existed since Shanghai.
  • Finally, despite low annualized fees on the ETH network, ETH remains slightly deflationary, with inflation of -0.09%

Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

Ethereum Price Action

  • ETH’s price action yesterday reflected the positive sentiment from the XRP ruling, with ETH closing ~7% higher on the day. ETH had its first close above $2000 since April and has been in a mild uptrend all year, with ETH up around 66% on the year.
  • However, it should be noted that ETH’s price performance has lagged both other native crypto assets like BTC (+89% YTD) and several crypto equites(COIN stock is up nearly 200% YTD; MSTR stock is up 224% YTD). And several bellwether tech stocks (NVDA, META, AAPL) to which we can compare ETH in terms of being a tech platform are up much more than ETH YTD.
  • While relative performance has been somewhat disappointing, ETH could see a catchup move in the next bull market as the ETH ecosystem grows.

Figure: ETH Price
Chart Source: Tradingview


ETH / BTC Price Action

  • Unsurprisingly, since BTC has outperformed ETH so far this year, ETH / BTC has been trending slightly lower, from a high of 0.078 to a low of ~0.06.
  • Much of the recent move lower in ETH / BTC has been due to the potential for a BTC ETF, which catalyzed the BTC dominance rally and sent all altcoins lower vs BTC (until yesterday’s XRP decision).
  • We believe ETH has the potential to flip BTC on many merits: (1) an institutional grade diversified crypto asset with a staking yield, (2)sustainable transaction fees that can make ETH’s monetary policy deflationary, and (3) scalability of ETH as a tech platform. However, for now BTC remains king, and ETH’s time to shine could be when there is more regulatory clarity and more momentum for a true crypto bull market.
Figure: ETH / BTC Chart
Source: Tradingview

Solana Update

  • We have not mentioned Solana much in previous reports, as we have focused on the innovation in the Ethereum ecosystem. Solana is a competing Layer One blockchain that makes different tradeoffs than Ethereum in order to achieve higher scalability and performance. Namely, Solana requires much more hardware-intensive nodes, many of which a rerun in data centers, for increased performance. This makes the tradeoff of lower decentralization (fewer nodes) for higher performance.
  • Solana is a worthy competitor to ETH which has helped push the ETH ecosystem to scale faster (via Layer Two technology). Solana was also dragged down in 2022 by pressure from FTX. Its rebound has been nothing short of spectacular, ad it is up 184% YTD and 30%+ since the XRP ruling, briefly touching $32 (its pre-FTX selloff level) before retracing a bit.
Figure: Solana Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

Polygon Update

  • Finally, the last altcoin we will look at this week is Polygon, whose native token is MATIC. Polygon has had an interesting journey, starting as an alternative Layer One (Polygon Proof of Stake chain), with the expressed intention of converting to an Ethereum L2 once the technology was ready.
  • Polygon has lived up to its promise and has developed several zero knowledge L2 solutions for Ethereum. It has also onboarded numerous institutions and brands into the crypto ecosystem. Nevertheless, the token has been under pressure for most of the year and, after yesterday’s ~20%move, is up 12% YTD.
  • Like ETH, Polygon has lagged despite a massive improvement in technology. As L2 ecosystems grow this year, we could see a mean reversion move.
Figure: Polygon Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or throughhttp://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge. BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such.BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services. BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision. The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction. The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment. The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance.

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.

Copyright 2023 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.

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