Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 4/5/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

Ethereum had an impressive start to April and a strong end to Q1 as the broader crypto market rally, coupled with tangible fundamental progress in ETH’s roadmap, led to impressive price action over the past week.​

Indeed, leaving the macro conversation to rest, the Ethereum ecosystem has been building up for its next set of technological advances after the Merge in September 2022. Additionally, since September 2022, ETH price has also been relatively lackluster, bottoming around $1100 and being range-bound since.​

This past week, ETH broke out of its range to the pre-Merge $1900 level, with a few imminent catalysts and a healthy pipeline of innovation on the horizon that could lead to sustainable adoption.​

The most impactful of these catalysts is the enabling of ETH staking withdrawals, which is exactly one week away (the Shanghai hard fork is expected to trigger on 4/12/23). While there has been much debate about the impact on flows (our report on Shanghai withdrawals calls for up to ~5mm ETH being unstaked), Shanghai also de-risks ETH staking.​

Ultimately, a liquid exit mechanism from ETH staking could lead to a medium-to-long-term increase in new staking interest (from institutions that were on the sidelines and from new capital that needed withdrawals to be enabled before staking). Shanghai could also catalyze a new wave of liquid staking ETH tokens to enter the DeFi ecosystem.​

Apart from staking, the rollup ecosystem is growing rapidly with the launch of 3 zkEVMs in March. As fees for users trend down over time and the app ecosystem grows, we could see ETH keep growing.​

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Ethereum had an impressive start to April and a strong end to Q1 as the broader crypto market rally, coupled with tangible fundamental progress in ETH’s roadmap, led to impressive price action over the past week.​

Indeed, leaving the macro conversation to rest, the Ethereum ecosystem has been building up for its next set of technological advances after the Merge in September 2022. Additionally, since September 2022, ETH price has also been relatively lackluster, bottoming around $1100 and being range-bound since.​

This past week, ETH broke out of its range to the pre-Merge $1900 level, with a few imminent catalysts and a healthy pipeline of innovation on the horizon that could lead to sustainable adoption.​

The most impactful of these catalysts is the enabling of ETH staking withdrawals, which is exactly one week away (the Shanghai hard fork is expected to trigger on 4/12/23). While there has been much debate about the impact on flows (our report on Shanghai withdrawals calls for up to ~5mm ETH being unstaked), Shanghai also de-risks ETH staking.​

Ultimately, a liquid exit mechanism from ETH staking could lead to a medium-to-long-term increase in new staking interest (from institutions that were on the sidelines and from new capital that needed withdrawals to be enabled before staking). Shanghai could also catalyze a new wave of liquid staking ETH tokens to enter the DeFi ecosystem.​

Apart from staking, the rollup ecosystem is growing rapidly with the launch of 3 zkEVMs in March. As fees for users trend down over time and the app ecosystem grows, we could see ETH keep growing.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update: ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Average ETH gas prices were marginally higher week over week as the rally in crypto prices catalyzed more trading activity over the past week. Indeed, the top gas consumers on Ethereum L1 were Uniswap and Aave.​
  • One notable statistic is that Uniswap, the decentralized exchange, eclipsed Coinbase’s volume for the month of March (and the second month in a row). Uniswap’s March volume was $71.6bn, which was 45% higher than that of Coinbase – and this volume took place predominantly within the Ethereum ecosystem to generate L1 fee revenue. ​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The ETH staking yield continues to hold steady despite new ETH continuing to trickle into the staking contract ahead of Shanghai. The amount of staked ETH now crossed 18mm, or nearly 15% of total ETH supply.​
  • With average gas fees above 31 gwei, ETH remains net deflationary, annualizing to -0.16% supply growth.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The table below is likely to change in the weeks after Shanghai, as the composition of staked entities can finally shift once withdrawals are enabled.​
  • Currently, the marketshare of “liquid staking,” where stakers are issued “liquid staking tokens” as representations of staked ETH, is 42%. There are arguments for why this percentage could increase post Shanghai (more stakers want immediate liquidity and utility while keeping ETH staked) or decrease if the ability to unstake renders the liquid token unnecessary.​
  • To reiterate – our withdrawal analysis report dated 2/21/23 outlines that we could see up to 5mm ETH change hands post Shanghai.​

Figure; ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Regulated DeFi Innovation: OpenEden

  • Although the past few months have seen a number of regulatory actions against noncompliant players in the crypto space, there continues to be a push for institutional, regulated DeFi where real world assets are attempted to be tokenized and distributed on-chain.​
  • One notable example is OpenEden, which is building a platform to tokenize treasury bills and bring KYC-compliant, institutional capital into the space.​
  • By bringing USD and treasury yield on-chain, the web3 / DeFi space could create an additional driver for demand for US assets in the burgeoning digital ecosystem.​

Figure: OpenEden
Source: The Block, Twitter

ETH Weekly Update - zkEVM L2 Growth: zkSync Era

  • One of the biggest criticisms of Ethereum since its inception was its inability to scale. Although the rollup roadmap has been in development since the start of the 2020 bull market, the holy grail for scaling has always been ZK Rollups (zero knowledge rollups).​
  • Several optimistic rollups (notably Optimism and Arbitrum) have grown over the past 2 years and onboarded new users. However, ZK Rollups, which had been estimated to be years away, have finally come to mainnet with a big splash in March.​
  • Since the launch of 2 production-ready zkEVM rollups (zkSync, Polygon) a week ago, usage and TVL (total value locked) has been robustly growing.​
Figure: zkSync Era TVL
Source: Source: DeFi Llama

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

Ethereum had an impressive start to April and a strong end to Q1 as the broader crypto market rally, coupled with tangible fundamental progress in ETH’s roadmap, led to impressive price action over the past week.​

Indeed, leaving the macro conversation to rest, the Ethereum ecosystem has been building up for its next set of technological advances after the Merge in September 2022. Additionally, since September 2022, ETH price has also been relatively lackluster, bottoming around $1100 and being range-bound since.​

This past week, ETH broke out of its range to the pre-Merge $1900 level, with a few imminent catalysts and a healthy pipeline of innovation on the horizon that could lead to sustainable adoption.​

The most impactful of these catalysts is the enabling of ETH staking withdrawals, which is exactly one week away (the Shanghai hard fork is expected to trigger on 4/12/23). While there has been much debate about the impact on flows (our report on Shanghai withdrawals calls for up to ~5mm ETH being unstaked), Shanghai also de-risks ETH staking.​

Ultimately, a liquid exit mechanism from ETH staking could lead to a medium-to-long-term increase in new staking interest (from institutions that were on the sidelines and from new capital that needed withdrawals to be enabled before staking). Shanghai could also catalyze a new wave of liquid staking ETH tokens to enter the DeFi ecosystem.​

Apart from staking, the rollup ecosystem is growing rapidly with the launch of 3 zkEVMs in March. As fees for users trend down over time and the app ecosystem grows, we could see ETH keep growing.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update: ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Average ETH gas prices were marginally higher week over week as the rally in crypto prices catalyzed more trading activity over the past week. Indeed, the top gas consumers on Ethereum L1 were Uniswap and Aave.​
  • One notable statistic is that Uniswap, the decentralized exchange, eclipsed Coinbase’s volume for the month of March (and the second month in a row). Uniswap’s March volume was $71.6bn, which was 45% higher than that of Coinbase – and this volume took place predominantly within the Ethereum ecosystem to generate L1 fee revenue. ​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The ETH staking yield continues to hold steady despite new ETH continuing to trickle into the staking contract ahead of Shanghai. The amount of staked ETH now crossed 18mm, or nearly 15% of total ETH supply.​
  • With average gas fees above 31 gwei, ETH remains net deflationary, annualizing to -0.16% supply growth.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The table below is likely to change in the weeks after Shanghai, as the composition of staked entities can finally shift once withdrawals are enabled.​
  • Currently, the marketshare of “liquid staking,” where stakers are issued “liquid staking tokens” as representations of staked ETH, is 42%. There are arguments for why this percentage could increase post Shanghai (more stakers want immediate liquidity and utility while keeping ETH staked) or decrease if the ability to unstake renders the liquid token unnecessary.​
  • To reiterate – our withdrawal analysis report dated 2/21/23 outlines that we could see up to 5mm ETH change hands post Shanghai.​

Figure; ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Regulated DeFi Innovation: OpenEden

  • Although the past few months have seen a number of regulatory actions against noncompliant players in the crypto space, there continues to be a push for institutional, regulated DeFi where real world assets are attempted to be tokenized and distributed on-chain.​
  • One notable example is OpenEden, which is building a platform to tokenize treasury bills and bring KYC-compliant, institutional capital into the space.​
  • By bringing USD and treasury yield on-chain, the web3 / DeFi space could create an additional driver for demand for US assets in the burgeoning digital ecosystem.​

Figure: OpenEden
Source: The Block, Twitter

ETH Weekly Update - zkEVM L2 Growth: zkSync Era

  • One of the biggest criticisms of Ethereum since its inception was its inability to scale. Although the rollup roadmap has been in development since the start of the 2020 bull market, the holy grail for scaling has always been ZK Rollups (zero knowledge rollups).​
  • Several optimistic rollups (notably Optimism and Arbitrum) have grown over the past 2 years and onboarded new users. However, ZK Rollups, which had been estimated to be years away, have finally come to mainnet with a big splash in March.​
  • Since the launch of 2 production-ready zkEVM rollups (zkSync, Polygon) a week ago, usage and TVL (total value locked) has been robustly growing.​
Figure: zkSync Era TVL
Source: Source: DeFi Llama

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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