Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 3/29/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

During this last full week of March, ongoing headlines in the crypto space (regulatory action against the largest crypto exchange, Binance, highlighted on slide 6), were balanced by normalization of macro factors that had been weighing on sentiment for much of the month.​

Indeed, after two eventful macro weeks where we saw a contained failure of SVB, Signature, and Silvergate, the fall and acquisition of Credit Suisse, a new Fed program to restore confidence in FDIC deposits, and another Fed rate hike, macro vol was on pause this past week.​

Crypto prices saw higher event-driven choppiness during the week, with BTC dropping from nearly $29k to $26.5k and ETH falling from $1850 to sub $1700 when the CFTC complaint against Binance was announced. However, prices bounced back quickly (alongside strength in risk assets) and ended the week relatively unchanged.​

In April, the focus could shift to more idiosyncratic catalysts, both for the crypto space and for the broader macro ecosystem. The end of Q1 in 2 days means the onset of corporate earnings, which will be instrumental in determining the health of the job market going forward. The macro spotlight may move from the rate hike regime (which is approaching its pause point) to the effect on the broader economy and whether we will experience a recession.​

On the crypto front, the Ethereum staking withdrawal hard fork will go live on April 12, which could create a one-time sell pressure event as well as de-risk the ETH staking ecosystem to encourage new participation. This will likely be as impactful for ETH as the Merge last year.​

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During this last full week of March, ongoing headlines in the crypto space (regulatory action against the largest crypto exchange, Binance, highlighted on slide 6), were balanced by normalization of macro factors that had been weighing on sentiment for much of the month.​

Indeed, after two eventful macro weeks where we saw a contained failure of SVB, Signature, and Silvergate, the fall and acquisition of Credit Suisse, a new Fed program to restore confidence in FDIC deposits, and another Fed rate hike, macro vol was on pause this past week.​

Crypto prices saw higher event-driven choppiness during the week, with BTC dropping from nearly $29k to $26.5k and ETH falling from $1850 to sub $1700 when the CFTC complaint against Binance was announced. However, prices bounced back quickly (alongside strength in risk assets) and ended the week relatively unchanged.​

In April, the focus could shift to more idiosyncratic catalysts, both for the crypto space and for the broader macro ecosystem. The end of Q1 in 2 days means the onset of corporate earnings, which will be instrumental in determining the health of the job market going forward. The macro spotlight may move from the rate hike regime (which is approaching its pause point) to the effect on the broader economy and whether we will experience a recession.​

On the crypto front, the Ethereum staking withdrawal hard fork will go live on April 12, which could create a one-time sell pressure event as well as de-risk the ETH staking ecosystem to encourage new participation. This will likely be as impactful for ETH as the Merge last year.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source; TradingView

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • Revenue was flat week over week, with Ethereum activity remaining muted relative to the first two weeks of March. ​
  • The notable new ecosystem revenue driver was Arbitrum, which saw a surge in activity, TVL (total value locked – a measure of liquidity in the ecosystem), and transaction fees following their token launch last week.​
  • As L2 proliferation continues, we believe L2 revenue will comprise a higher proportion of total ETH ecosystem revenue, with activity moving from ETH L1 applications to L2.​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Average Ethereum gas fees were flat week over week as L1 activity was normalized. Absent large market price volatility spikes, which create trading activity, or major L1 NFT launches, which create a surge in gas prices due to NFT minting, ETH gas fees seem to have found a “steady state” in the ~20 gwei range.​

Figure: ETH Fees
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The ETH staking yield was modestly lower week over week as annualized fees were lower (resulting in less fee revenue for validators). Nevertheless, ETH remains slightly deflationary, with nearly 4,000 ETH burned over the past week.​
  • Total ETH staked trickled higher by 100k ETH, reaching 17.9mm ETH staked (nearly 15% of the total supply) with Shanghai exactly two weeks away.​

Figure: ETH Economic Snapshot
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Despite the bounce back in crypto prices, BTC continues to slightly outperform ETH (despite ETH historically having a higher beta than BTC).​
  • It is likely that the risk-off price action in ETH is partially driven by the upcoming withdrawal hard fork, with new buyers pausing to see the effects of staking withdrawals before entering.​
  • We could see up to 5mm ETH change hands in the months following Shanghai as accrued staking rewards and underwater staked ETH from the bull market may sell (see our withdrawal analysis dated 2/21/23).​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Regulatory Action

  • This past week, the CFTC issued a complaint against the largest global exchange, Binance, with a number of allegations including operating an illegal digital asset derivatives exchange.​
  • This action complements the SEC’s Wells Notice to Coinbase earlier this month as the call to bring crypto into the existing regulatory framework is intensifying.​
  • In the near term, this could result in lower liquidity for institutions in crypto markets until these actions are resolved.​

Figure: Weekly News Headline
Source: CFTC

ETH Weekly Update - zkEVM Launches

  • To counterbalance the regulatory actions over the course of March, the technological advances in the Ethereum ecosystem have been moving at a breakneck pace. Ethereum L1 is not designed to scale to support mass user adoption with low fees – Ethereum is meant to act as a settlement chain that maximizes decentralization and security.​
  • As a result, zero knowledge rollups (L2s) have been on the roadmap to act as the execution environment for future users. Over the past week, three separate zkEVM environments launched (Polygon zkEVM mainnet, zkSync zkEVM mainnet, Consensys zkEVM testnet).​
  • These zkEVMs, while relatively new, represent the ”holy grail” for scaling and can now support onboarding for new users and institutions.​
Figure: Consensus zkEVM Launch
Source: Twitter

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

During this last full week of March, ongoing headlines in the crypto space (regulatory action against the largest crypto exchange, Binance, highlighted on slide 6), were balanced by normalization of macro factors that had been weighing on sentiment for much of the month.​

Indeed, after two eventful macro weeks where we saw a contained failure of SVB, Signature, and Silvergate, the fall and acquisition of Credit Suisse, a new Fed program to restore confidence in FDIC deposits, and another Fed rate hike, macro vol was on pause this past week.​

Crypto prices saw higher event-driven choppiness during the week, with BTC dropping from nearly $29k to $26.5k and ETH falling from $1850 to sub $1700 when the CFTC complaint against Binance was announced. However, prices bounced back quickly (alongside strength in risk assets) and ended the week relatively unchanged.​

In April, the focus could shift to more idiosyncratic catalysts, both for the crypto space and for the broader macro ecosystem. The end of Q1 in 2 days means the onset of corporate earnings, which will be instrumental in determining the health of the job market going forward. The macro spotlight may move from the rate hike regime (which is approaching its pause point) to the effect on the broader economy and whether we will experience a recession.​

On the crypto front, the Ethereum staking withdrawal hard fork will go live on April 12, which could create a one-time sell pressure event as well as de-risk the ETH staking ecosystem to encourage new participation. This will likely be as impactful for ETH as the Merge last year.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source; TradingView

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • Revenue was flat week over week, with Ethereum activity remaining muted relative to the first two weeks of March. ​
  • The notable new ecosystem revenue driver was Arbitrum, which saw a surge in activity, TVL (total value locked – a measure of liquidity in the ecosystem), and transaction fees following their token launch last week.​
  • As L2 proliferation continues, we believe L2 revenue will comprise a higher proportion of total ETH ecosystem revenue, with activity moving from ETH L1 applications to L2.​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Average Ethereum gas fees were flat week over week as L1 activity was normalized. Absent large market price volatility spikes, which create trading activity, or major L1 NFT launches, which create a surge in gas prices due to NFT minting, ETH gas fees seem to have found a “steady state” in the ~20 gwei range.​

Figure: ETH Fees
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The ETH staking yield was modestly lower week over week as annualized fees were lower (resulting in less fee revenue for validators). Nevertheless, ETH remains slightly deflationary, with nearly 4,000 ETH burned over the past week.​
  • Total ETH staked trickled higher by 100k ETH, reaching 17.9mm ETH staked (nearly 15% of the total supply) with Shanghai exactly two weeks away.​

Figure: ETH Economic Snapshot
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Despite the bounce back in crypto prices, BTC continues to slightly outperform ETH (despite ETH historically having a higher beta than BTC).​
  • It is likely that the risk-off price action in ETH is partially driven by the upcoming withdrawal hard fork, with new buyers pausing to see the effects of staking withdrawals before entering.​
  • We could see up to 5mm ETH change hands in the months following Shanghai as accrued staking rewards and underwater staked ETH from the bull market may sell (see our withdrawal analysis dated 2/21/23).​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Regulatory Action

  • This past week, the CFTC issued a complaint against the largest global exchange, Binance, with a number of allegations including operating an illegal digital asset derivatives exchange.​
  • This action complements the SEC’s Wells Notice to Coinbase earlier this month as the call to bring crypto into the existing regulatory framework is intensifying.​
  • In the near term, this could result in lower liquidity for institutions in crypto markets until these actions are resolved.​

Figure: Weekly News Headline
Source: CFTC

ETH Weekly Update - zkEVM Launches

  • To counterbalance the regulatory actions over the course of March, the technological advances in the Ethereum ecosystem have been moving at a breakneck pace. Ethereum L1 is not designed to scale to support mass user adoption with low fees – Ethereum is meant to act as a settlement chain that maximizes decentralization and security.​
  • As a result, zero knowledge rollups (L2s) have been on the roadmap to act as the execution environment for future users. Over the past week, three separate zkEVM environments launched (Polygon zkEVM mainnet, zkSync zkEVM mainnet, Consensys zkEVM testnet).​
  • These zkEVMs, while relatively new, represent the ”holy grail” for scaling and can now support onboarding for new users and institutions.​
Figure: Consensus zkEVM Launch
Source: Twitter

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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