Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 3/22/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

The macro news cycle continued to steal the show for a second week. Over the previous week we experienced a more-extraordinary-than-normal set of events that culminated in the Fed’s BTFP program to bolster regional / community banks. However, the contagion accelerated last week beyond US borders, ultimately resulting in the merger of Credit Suisse with UBS.​

What is interesting is the action that central banks took to stem the contagion allayed risk assets, with equities and gold rallying and BTC notably outperforming.​

ETH was up nearly 5% week over week, and even more impressively, Bitcoin surged a massive 12% for the week, as the narrative for digital gold as a store of value eclipsed the tech crypto narrative for the week. As a result, we did see some key discrepancies in crypto over the past week:​

  • Typically, ETH outperforms BTC to the upside (higher beta). Not this week.​
  • Despite risk markets rallying in response to the bank resolutions, this was more of a “risk off” crypto rally.​

While it is too early to conclude that crypto will trade as an independent asset class (since many macro tests remain – including the reversal after today’s Fed meeting, ongoing inflation, and a looming recession), it is notable that the Bitcoin-specific narrative of being a store of value did reemerge during the week.​

On-chain activity for Ethereum was muted, as Bitcoin stole the spotlight (ETH/BTC fell to 0.063 from 0.069). Nevertheless, progress continues in the Ethereum ecosystem, although a few short-term headwinds remain.​

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The macro news cycle continued to steal the show for a second week. Over the previous week we experienced a more-extraordinary-than-normal set of events that culminated in the Fed’s BTFP program to bolster regional / community banks. However, the contagion accelerated last week beyond US borders, ultimately resulting in the merger of Credit Suisse with UBS.​

What is interesting is the action that central banks took to stem the contagion allayed risk assets, with equities and gold rallying and BTC notably outperforming.​

ETH was up nearly 5% week over week, and even more impressively, Bitcoin surged a massive 12% for the week, as the narrative for digital gold as a store of value eclipsed the tech crypto narrative for the week. As a result, we did see some key discrepancies in crypto over the past week:​

  • Typically, ETH outperforms BTC to the upside (higher beta). Not this week.​
  • Despite risk markets rallying in response to the bank resolutions, this was more of a “risk off” crypto rally.​

While it is too early to conclude that crypto will trade as an independent asset class (since many macro tests remain – including the reversal after today’s Fed meeting, ongoing inflation, and a looming recession), it is notable that the Bitcoin-specific narrative of being a store of value did reemerge during the week.​

On-chain activity for Ethereum was muted, as Bitcoin stole the spotlight (ETH/BTC fell to 0.063 from 0.069). Nevertheless, progress continues in the Ethereum ecosystem, although a few short-term headwinds remain.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: TradingView

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • The previous week, we had seen a surge in activity on Ethereum (related to the USDC depeg and heightened trading volumes on-chain). As a result, ecosystem revenue was $43.5mm. ​
  • Activity normalized over the past week, with revenue dropping 32% to $29.5mm. Other than Ethereum and the Tron L1 chain earning the most fee revenue, the top protocol revenue went to the trading platforms (dYdX, Synthetix, GMX).​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Commensurate with the weekly drop in revenues, average gas fees were lower week-on-week (falling 43% to 26 gwei). ​
  • Last week’s surge was largely due to one day (3/11) when the USDC depeg intensified and catalyzed a surge of trading activity. With no major new product launches (NFT marketplaces, etc.) or DeFi trading activity, ETH gas fees were more normalized for the past week.​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • As a result of lower gas fees, the fee burn was lower. However, even though ETH activity was muted (on a relative basis), we still saw a net deflationary week, with the supply of ETH dropping 2.5k to 120.4mm.​
  • This highlights the robustness of ETH’s monetary policy post-Merge under Proof of Stake; even at lower on-chain activity (lower revenues, lower gas fees), ETH remained marginally deflationary.​

Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • Finally, we continue to see the reflexiveness of ETH fees on the ETH staking yield. Week over week, the annualized ETH staking yield dropped from nearly 7% to 5.7%.​
  • Total ETH staked trickled higher to nearly 17.8mm from 17.6mm the previous week.​

Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The Shanghai hard fork (enabling staking withdrawals) was officially set for 4/12/23 - just over 3 weeks from now.​​
  • One potential factor causing ETH’s price to lag BTC could be the looming staking withdrawal effect. As noted in our previous staking withdrawal analysis report (dated 2/21), we could see up to 5mm ETH sold following withdrawals being enabled. This could create pressure on ETH going into the event.​

Figure: ETH Staking Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - L2 Innovation

  • While we highlighted that ETH L1 on-chain activity was relatively muted over the past week, technological development continues to progress.​
  • Although we remain in a crypto bear market, Ethereum will need the structural capacity to onboard users in a seamless, affordable manner to ensure mass adoption. This scaling will happen on L2s, rather than on Ethereum L1.​
  • Last week, Arbitrum announced the launch of its $ARB token airdrop, which will occur tomorrow (3/23). The token launch should build upon the innovative app ecosystem developing on Arbitrum and drive a new wave of users into the Ethereum ecosystem.​

Figure: Weekly News Headline
Source: Twitter

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

The macro news cycle continued to steal the show for a second week. Over the previous week we experienced a more-extraordinary-than-normal set of events that culminated in the Fed’s BTFP program to bolster regional / community banks. However, the contagion accelerated last week beyond US borders, ultimately resulting in the merger of Credit Suisse with UBS.​

What is interesting is the action that central banks took to stem the contagion allayed risk assets, with equities and gold rallying and BTC notably outperforming.​

ETH was up nearly 5% week over week, and even more impressively, Bitcoin surged a massive 12% for the week, as the narrative for digital gold as a store of value eclipsed the tech crypto narrative for the week. As a result, we did see some key discrepancies in crypto over the past week:​

  • Typically, ETH outperforms BTC to the upside (higher beta). Not this week.​
  • Despite risk markets rallying in response to the bank resolutions, this was more of a “risk off” crypto rally.​

While it is too early to conclude that crypto will trade as an independent asset class (since many macro tests remain – including the reversal after today’s Fed meeting, ongoing inflation, and a looming recession), it is notable that the Bitcoin-specific narrative of being a store of value did reemerge during the week.​

On-chain activity for Ethereum was muted, as Bitcoin stole the spotlight (ETH/BTC fell to 0.063 from 0.069). Nevertheless, progress continues in the Ethereum ecosystem, although a few short-term headwinds remain.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: TradingView

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • The previous week, we had seen a surge in activity on Ethereum (related to the USDC depeg and heightened trading volumes on-chain). As a result, ecosystem revenue was $43.5mm. ​
  • Activity normalized over the past week, with revenue dropping 32% to $29.5mm. Other than Ethereum and the Tron L1 chain earning the most fee revenue, the top protocol revenue went to the trading platforms (dYdX, Synthetix, GMX).​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Commensurate with the weekly drop in revenues, average gas fees were lower week-on-week (falling 43% to 26 gwei). ​
  • Last week’s surge was largely due to one day (3/11) when the USDC depeg intensified and catalyzed a surge of trading activity. With no major new product launches (NFT marketplaces, etc.) or DeFi trading activity, ETH gas fees were more normalized for the past week.​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • As a result of lower gas fees, the fee burn was lower. However, even though ETH activity was muted (on a relative basis), we still saw a net deflationary week, with the supply of ETH dropping 2.5k to 120.4mm.​
  • This highlights the robustness of ETH’s monetary policy post-Merge under Proof of Stake; even at lower on-chain activity (lower revenues, lower gas fees), ETH remained marginally deflationary.​

Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • Finally, we continue to see the reflexiveness of ETH fees on the ETH staking yield. Week over week, the annualized ETH staking yield dropped from nearly 7% to 5.7%.​
  • Total ETH staked trickled higher to nearly 17.8mm from 17.6mm the previous week.​

Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The Shanghai hard fork (enabling staking withdrawals) was officially set for 4/12/23 - just over 3 weeks from now.​​
  • One potential factor causing ETH’s price to lag BTC could be the looming staking withdrawal effect. As noted in our previous staking withdrawal analysis report (dated 2/21), we could see up to 5mm ETH sold following withdrawals being enabled. This could create pressure on ETH going into the event.​

Figure: ETH Staking Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - L2 Innovation

  • While we highlighted that ETH L1 on-chain activity was relatively muted over the past week, technological development continues to progress.​
  • Although we remain in a crypto bear market, Ethereum will need the structural capacity to onboard users in a seamless, affordable manner to ensure mass adoption. This scaling will happen on L2s, rather than on Ethereum L1.​
  • Last week, Arbitrum announced the launch of its $ARB token airdrop, which will occur tomorrow (3/23). The token launch should build upon the innovative app ecosystem developing on Arbitrum and drive a new wave of users into the Ethereum ecosystem.​

Figure: Weekly News Headline
Source: Twitter

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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