Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 3/1/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

Price action for crypto assets has been relatively muted to start March, after a largely sideways February as the theme of consolidation and lower-than-normal volatility continues. Despite a continued confluence of crypto-centric and broader macro headlines, ETH and BTC have traded in a relatively orderly fashion, ending the first week of March moderately lower.

It is likely that volatility in the crypto markets will pick up for several reasons in the coming weeks/months due to underlying macro and crypto drivers.​

On the macro front, the economy remains too resilient and inflation remains too high for the Fed to take its foot completely off the interest rate pedal. Just yesterday, Chairman Powell confirmed a “higher for longer” regime where the terminal Fed Funds rate may be higher than previously anticipated. This sent stocks and crypto lower. The jobs data this Friday and CPI reading next week will be instrumental in setting the macro tone for the near future. Indeed, while one day, we hope that crypto will trade independently, macro still rules.​

On the crypto front, we are about 4-5 weeks away from ETH withdrawals via the Shanghai Hard Fork, which will potentially bring a flurry of trading activity around unstaking / selling / shuffling around staking providers. ​

Apart from Ethereum specific catalysts, the regulatory spotlight continues to shine on the crypto space, with the SEC and Congress continually working on proposed frameworks for digital assets. A resolution that finally leads to regulatory clarity could be the catalyst for our next wave of institutional adoption. ​

Premium Content

Unlock exclusive insights with our cutting-edge digital finance platform. Gain access to next-gen data analytics and digital asset products crafted with applied science. Subscribe now to stay ahead of the curve.

  • Research and Consulting
  • Investment Banking and Advisory
  • Sales and Origination
  • HPC and Power Advisory
Request Access Now!

Price action for crypto assets has been relatively muted to start March, after a largely sideways February as the theme of consolidation and lower-than-normal volatility continues. Despite a continued confluence of crypto-centric and broader macro headlines, ETH and BTC have traded in a relatively orderly fashion, ending the first week of March moderately lower.

It is likely that volatility in the crypto markets will pick up for several reasons in the coming weeks/months due to underlying macro and crypto drivers.​

On the macro front, the economy remains too resilient and inflation remains too high for the Fed to take its foot completely off the interest rate pedal. Just yesterday, Chairman Powell confirmed a “higher for longer” regime where the terminal Fed Funds rate may be higher than previously anticipated. This sent stocks and crypto lower. The jobs data this Friday and CPI reading next week will be instrumental in setting the macro tone for the near future. Indeed, while one day, we hope that crypto will trade independently, macro still rules.​

On the crypto front, we are about 4-5 weeks away from ETH withdrawals via the Shanghai Hard Fork, which will potentially bring a flurry of trading activity around unstaking / selling / shuffling around staking providers. ​

Apart from Ethereum specific catalysts, the regulatory spotlight continues to shine on the crypto space, with the SEC and Congress continually working on proposed frameworks for digital assets. A resolution that finally leads to regulatory clarity could be the catalyst for our next wave of institutional adoption. ​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • Ethereum fee revenue was flat week over week, totaling ~$33mm in fees paid by users to result in another relatively robust week of demand given the ongoing bear market and subdued ETH volatility.​​
  • OpenSea, which has been the second-largest revenue generator over the past two weeks, saw much less activity as NFTs took a back seat to the decentralized trading platform dYdX and the liquid staking provider Lido.
  • Notably, Filecoin (a non-EVM L1 blockchain meant for decentralized file storage and retrieval) saw elevated fee revenue as the ecosystem grows.​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Average ETH gas fees marginally ticked higher this week, reaching a 34 gwei average gas price vs 32 gwei the previous week.​
  • ETH price has traded in a ~$100 range between $1550 and $1648 over the past week in technical consolidation mode despite a rate-driven macro selloff.​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • Elevated ETH gas fees continue to reduce the outstanding ETH supply, with ~8,000 ETH being burned over the past week.​
  • The outstanding ETH supply, which peaked north of 120.5mm, has been net deflationary to the tune of -48k ETH since the Merge nearly 6 months ago.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The ETH staking yield remains low, hovering around 6%, as a slight uptick in total amount staked (which reduces overall staking yield) was offset by a slight uptick in fees to validators.​
  • With the Shanghai hard fork enabling staking withdrawals coming online in April, we could see the total staked ETH percentage change meaningfully. If it increases substantially without a corresponding increase in fees, the ETH staking yield could fall to 5% or lower.​
Figure: ETH Economic Snapshot
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Lido inflows continued to increase over the past week as the share of liquid staking ticks higher.​
  • The stETH to ETH price is currently 0.999, which indicates that the market is pricing very little risk to Lido as withdrawals are enabled. Note that after Shanghai, stETH can be withdrawn 1:1 for underlying ETH, so the theoretical secondary market price of stETH should be 1 ETH.​
  • The next Shanghai testnet fork will be next week on 3/14, after which the mainnet fork will be scheduled.​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source:  Dune Analytics

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

Price action for crypto assets has been relatively muted to start March, after a largely sideways February as the theme of consolidation and lower-than-normal volatility continues. Despite a continued confluence of crypto-centric and broader macro headlines, ETH and BTC have traded in a relatively orderly fashion, ending the first week of March moderately lower.

It is likely that volatility in the crypto markets will pick up for several reasons in the coming weeks/months due to underlying macro and crypto drivers.​

On the macro front, the economy remains too resilient and inflation remains too high for the Fed to take its foot completely off the interest rate pedal. Just yesterday, Chairman Powell confirmed a “higher for longer” regime where the terminal Fed Funds rate may be higher than previously anticipated. This sent stocks and crypto lower. The jobs data this Friday and CPI reading next week will be instrumental in setting the macro tone for the near future. Indeed, while one day, we hope that crypto will trade independently, macro still rules.​

On the crypto front, we are about 4-5 weeks away from ETH withdrawals via the Shanghai Hard Fork, which will potentially bring a flurry of trading activity around unstaking / selling / shuffling around staking providers. ​

Apart from Ethereum specific catalysts, the regulatory spotlight continues to shine on the crypto space, with the SEC and Congress continually working on proposed frameworks for digital assets. A resolution that finally leads to regulatory clarity could be the catalyst for our next wave of institutional adoption. ​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • Ethereum fee revenue was flat week over week, totaling ~$33mm in fees paid by users to result in another relatively robust week of demand given the ongoing bear market and subdued ETH volatility.​​
  • OpenSea, which has been the second-largest revenue generator over the past two weeks, saw much less activity as NFTs took a back seat to the decentralized trading platform dYdX and the liquid staking provider Lido.
  • Notably, Filecoin (a non-EVM L1 blockchain meant for decentralized file storage and retrieval) saw elevated fee revenue as the ecosystem grows.​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Average ETH gas fees marginally ticked higher this week, reaching a 34 gwei average gas price vs 32 gwei the previous week.​
  • ETH price has traded in a ~$100 range between $1550 and $1648 over the past week in technical consolidation mode despite a rate-driven macro selloff.​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • Elevated ETH gas fees continue to reduce the outstanding ETH supply, with ~8,000 ETH being burned over the past week.​
  • The outstanding ETH supply, which peaked north of 120.5mm, has been net deflationary to the tune of -48k ETH since the Merge nearly 6 months ago.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • The ETH staking yield remains low, hovering around 6%, as a slight uptick in total amount staked (which reduces overall staking yield) was offset by a slight uptick in fees to validators.​
  • With the Shanghai hard fork enabling staking withdrawals coming online in April, we could see the total staked ETH percentage change meaningfully. If it increases substantially without a corresponding increase in fees, the ETH staking yield could fall to 5% or lower.​
Figure: ETH Economic Snapshot
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Lido inflows continued to increase over the past week as the share of liquid staking ticks higher.​
  • The stETH to ETH price is currently 0.999, which indicates that the market is pricing very little risk to Lido as withdrawals are enabled. Note that after Shanghai, stETH can be withdrawn 1:1 for underlying ETH, so the theoretical secondary market price of stETH should be 1 ETH.​
  • The next Shanghai testnet fork will be next week on 3/14, after which the mainnet fork will be scheduled.​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source:  Dune Analytics

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

Related Research