Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 2/15/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

Ethereum’s strong rally for the first five weeks of 2023 came to an abrupt halt not due to the deluge of macro data over the past week, but due to a new potential overhang for this coming year: a potential regulatory reckoning.​

With earnings releases slowing, the Feb Fed meeting behind us, and the market remaining remarkably resilient despite a slight uptick in inflation this week, the macro rudder that has been steering markets seems to be pausing and being replaced by crypto regulation.

To be clear: our industry needs defined regulations. 2022 was a disaster for the crypto space mainly due to the failure of centralized entities that purported to operate largely outside of the regulatory framework. The cascading failures of 2022 cannot repeat again, and the industry needs to build in a responsible manner.​

With that preamble, the risk of regulatory reach is entirely possible given the severity of 2022’s crypto failures. This regulatory action could directly impact DeFi and Ethereum.​

In the past week, a major stablecoin and a major centralized staking provider were targeted in enforcement actions. This was the catalyst for ETH to sell off as much as 15% from its local high (just above $1700) and for the overall market to pause its 2023 rally.​

On the long-term path toward realizing crypto’s long-term potential, the crypto ecosystem could see regulatory volatility through 2023.​

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Ethereum’s strong rally for the first five weeks of 2023 came to an abrupt halt not due to the deluge of macro data over the past week, but due to a new potential overhang for this coming year: a potential regulatory reckoning.​

With earnings releases slowing, the Feb Fed meeting behind us, and the market remaining remarkably resilient despite a slight uptick in inflation this week, the macro rudder that has been steering markets seems to be pausing and being replaced by crypto regulation.

To be clear: our industry needs defined regulations. 2022 was a disaster for the crypto space mainly due to the failure of centralized entities that purported to operate largely outside of the regulatory framework. The cascading failures of 2022 cannot repeat again, and the industry needs to build in a responsible manner.​

With that preamble, the risk of regulatory reach is entirely possible given the severity of 2022’s crypto failures. This regulatory action could directly impact DeFi and Ethereum.​

In the past week, a major stablecoin and a major centralized staking provider were targeted in enforcement actions. This was the catalyst for ETH to sell off as much as 15% from its local high (just above $1700) and for the overall market to pause its 2023 rally.​

On the long-term path toward realizing crypto’s long-term potential, the crypto ecosystem could see regulatory volatility through 2023.​

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • Ethereum fee revenue was relatively flat week over week, with a spike on 2/14/23 related to a major token release (this revenue was not captured in the graphic below).​
  • Ethereum is driven by its underlying applications, which generate sustainable revenue. OpenSea, the NFT platform, was the most popular platform over the course of the week, with DeFi trading apps GMX and dYdX generating the next-highest revenue.
  • Interestingly, Polygon, the soon-to-be fully-fledged zero knowledge Layer Two on Ethereum, generated significant fees this past week. In the future, we estimate that L2s will be the top revenue generators after ETH.

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • While the previous slide’s graphic did not capture the fee spike on 2/14, we can see the surge in ETH fees and average gas price in the table below.​
  • Although we expect most user activity to migrate to L2s once they are production-ready, major NFT and token releases may continue to happen on ETH, which could drive ongoing periodic fee spikes.​
  • As a result of the spike on 2/14, aggregate ETH fees were up 12.4% WoW, resulting in an annualized 1.3mm ETH / $2bn in fees.​
  • The average gas price of 35 gwei remained above the threshold required for net deflation (16.7 gwei).​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • The fee burn in the past week continued to accelerate over the previous week, with ~9,000 ETH net burned, reducing the total ETH supply to nearly 120.5mm.​
  • This weekly fee burn was accelerated by the BLUR token release, which caused the 2/14 gas spike.​
  • In aggregate, the Ethereum protocol has net burned 21,000 ETH since the Merge nearly 5 months ago.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • Total ETH staked continues to trend higher, with over 16.6mm ETH (13.81% of total supply) staked. ​
  • The timing of the Shanghai withdrawal fork remains late March / early April and could result in volatility around staking / unstaking dynamics (to be explored in a future report).​
  • With the uptick in fees, effective ETH staking rates continued to climb to 6.27% over the past week.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Due to the dollar price drop in spot ETH over the past week, the total dollar value of ETH staked dropped despite an increase of ~100,000 ETH staked.​
  • We will address the Kraken staking enforcement action in the following slide. However, Kraken’s ~1.2mm ETH (~7.4% of total staked ETH supply) will need to be unstaked post-Shanghai.​
  • It is possible that given the unstaking from centralized entities like Kraken, liquid staking marketshare will climb post withdrawals. ​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics -https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Notable Developments

  • A regulatory headwind took the spotlight this week, with Kraken (the centralized exchange) being ordered to shut down its crypto staking service. As a result, Kraken will withdraw its ~1.2mm staked ETH and unstake all other assets.​
  • On the flipside, a very positive sign of adoption was the German multinational tech conglomerate Siemens choosing to use the Polygon blockchain to issue a digital bond. Siemens cited the following advantage of using the blockchain, which highlights our real world adoption thesis:​
  • “In addition to providing a shared ledger which reduces the need for reconciliations, the blockchain securities are issued directly to investors sidestepping the cost and need for intermediaries.”

Figure: Weekly News Headline
Source:  https://blog.kraken.com/post/17619/settlement// , https://www.ledgerinsights.com/siemens-digital-bond-blockchain/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

Ethereum’s strong rally for the first five weeks of 2023 came to an abrupt halt not due to the deluge of macro data over the past week, but due to a new potential overhang for this coming year: a potential regulatory reckoning.​

With earnings releases slowing, the Feb Fed meeting behind us, and the market remaining remarkably resilient despite a slight uptick in inflation this week, the macro rudder that has been steering markets seems to be pausing and being replaced by crypto regulation.

To be clear: our industry needs defined regulations. 2022 was a disaster for the crypto space mainly due to the failure of centralized entities that purported to operate largely outside of the regulatory framework. The cascading failures of 2022 cannot repeat again, and the industry needs to build in a responsible manner.​

With that preamble, the risk of regulatory reach is entirely possible given the severity of 2022’s crypto failures. This regulatory action could directly impact DeFi and Ethereum.​

In the past week, a major stablecoin and a major centralized staking provider were targeted in enforcement actions. This was the catalyst for ETH to sell off as much as 15% from its local high (just above $1700) and for the overall market to pause its 2023 rally.​

On the long-term path toward realizing crypto’s long-term potential, the crypto ecosystem could see regulatory volatility through 2023.​

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • Ethereum fee revenue was relatively flat week over week, with a spike on 2/14/23 related to a major token release (this revenue was not captured in the graphic below).​
  • Ethereum is driven by its underlying applications, which generate sustainable revenue. OpenSea, the NFT platform, was the most popular platform over the course of the week, with DeFi trading apps GMX and dYdX generating the next-highest revenue.
  • Interestingly, Polygon, the soon-to-be fully-fledged zero knowledge Layer Two on Ethereum, generated significant fees this past week. In the future, we estimate that L2s will be the top revenue generators after ETH.

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • While the previous slide’s graphic did not capture the fee spike on 2/14, we can see the surge in ETH fees and average gas price in the table below.​
  • Although we expect most user activity to migrate to L2s once they are production-ready, major NFT and token releases may continue to happen on ETH, which could drive ongoing periodic fee spikes.​
  • As a result of the spike on 2/14, aggregate ETH fees were up 12.4% WoW, resulting in an annualized 1.3mm ETH / $2bn in fees.​
  • The average gas price of 35 gwei remained above the threshold required for net deflation (16.7 gwei).​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • The fee burn in the past week continued to accelerate over the previous week, with ~9,000 ETH net burned, reducing the total ETH supply to nearly 120.5mm.​
  • This weekly fee burn was accelerated by the BLUR token release, which caused the 2/14 gas spike.​
  • In aggregate, the Ethereum protocol has net burned 21,000 ETH since the Merge nearly 5 months ago.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • Total ETH staked continues to trend higher, with over 16.6mm ETH (13.81% of total supply) staked. ​
  • The timing of the Shanghai withdrawal fork remains late March / early April and could result in volatility around staking / unstaking dynamics (to be explored in a future report).​
  • With the uptick in fees, effective ETH staking rates continued to climb to 6.27% over the past week.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Due to the dollar price drop in spot ETH over the past week, the total dollar value of ETH staked dropped despite an increase of ~100,000 ETH staked.​
  • We will address the Kraken staking enforcement action in the following slide. However, Kraken’s ~1.2mm ETH (~7.4% of total staked ETH supply) will need to be unstaked post-Shanghai.​
  • It is possible that given the unstaking from centralized entities like Kraken, liquid staking marketshare will climb post withdrawals. ​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics -https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Notable Developments

  • A regulatory headwind took the spotlight this week, with Kraken (the centralized exchange) being ordered to shut down its crypto staking service. As a result, Kraken will withdraw its ~1.2mm staked ETH and unstake all other assets.​
  • On the flipside, a very positive sign of adoption was the German multinational tech conglomerate Siemens choosing to use the Polygon blockchain to issue a digital bond. Siemens cited the following advantage of using the blockchain, which highlights our real world adoption thesis:​
  • “In addition to providing a shared ledger which reduces the need for reconciliations, the blockchain securities are issued directly to investors sidestepping the cost and need for intermediaries.”

Figure: Weekly News Headline
Source:  https://blog.kraken.com/post/17619/settlement// , https://www.ledgerinsights.com/siemens-digital-bond-blockchain/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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