Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 2/8/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

Ethereum’s strength continued through the first week of February, with the magnitude of January’s bounce (in crypto and macro) providing momentum for crypto assets. ETH specifically gained ground on BTC after underperforming for the month of January, with the ETH/BTC ratio increasing from 0.069 to 0.072.​

Macro may ultimately continue to drive the narrative in the near term, with several catalysts occurring in Feb (FOMC meeting last week, CPI next week).

As a result, ETH, BTC, and the broader crypto market are likely to remain a higher beta play on traditional markets rather than an idiosyncratic asset class. Although the Feb 1 FOMC meeting gave the broader market a breath of relief with a smaller 25bp rate hike and hints of a hiking pause, the ensuing strength from the jobs report from last Friday could cause ongoing interest rate vol.​

All eyes are now on the upcoming Feb 14 CPI reading to either confirm ongoing disinflation or warrant further hikes.​

Following the period of macro data releases (economic indicators and corporate earnings reports), ETH is likely to shift back toward idiosyncratic catalysts – namely the upcoming withdrawals hard fork in the March/April timeframe.​

Premium Content

Unlock exclusive insights with our cutting-edge digital finance platform. Gain access to next-gen data analytics and digital asset products crafted with applied science. Subscribe now to stay ahead of the curve.

  • Research and Consulting
  • Investment Banking and Advisory
  • Sales and Origination
  • HPC and Power Advisory
Request Access Now!

Ethereum’s strength continued through the first week of February, with the magnitude of January’s bounce (in crypto and macro) providing momentum for crypto assets. ETH specifically gained ground on BTC after underperforming for the month of January, with the ETH/BTC ratio increasing from 0.069 to 0.072.​

Macro may ultimately continue to drive the narrative in the near term, with several catalysts occurring in Feb (FOMC meeting last week, CPI next week).

As a result, ETH, BTC, and the broader crypto market are likely to remain a higher beta play on traditional markets rather than an idiosyncratic asset class. Although the Feb 1 FOMC meeting gave the broader market a breath of relief with a smaller 25bp rate hike and hints of a hiking pause, the ensuing strength from the jobs report from last Friday could cause ongoing interest rate vol.​

All eyes are now on the upcoming Feb 14 CPI reading to either confirm ongoing disinflation or warrant further hikes.​

Following the period of macro data releases (economic indicators and corporate earnings reports), ETH is likely to shift back toward idiosyncratic catalysts – namely the upcoming withdrawals hard fork in the March/April timeframe.​

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

ETH Weekly Update: Ecosystem Revenue

  • Despite being in an ongoing crypto bear market, ETH activity remains robust, with ETH fee revenue up 50% week over week.​
  • Aside from Ethereum, the notable revenue generators are players in the Ethereum ecosystem, with Opensea (the NFT platform) remaining the #2 driver and DeFi apps (dYdX, GMX, Lido) showing demand for trading and staking activity.
Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal (https://tokenterminal.com/terminal)

ETH Weekly Update: ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Although ETH gas fees are annualizing to below 2022, 2021, and even 2020 levels (due to ongoing bear market activity), the trajectory of fees week over week has been increasing.​
  • Weekly gas fees were up 26% week over week, annualizing to ~1.2mm ETH, or just under $2bn USD in fees.​
Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • The ETH fee burn accelerated over the past week, with ETH issuance since the Merge becoming increasingly deflationary. ​
  • The previous “trough” supply in November was a net reduction in supply of 6,000 ETH. With the current level of activity, over 12,000 ETH has been burned – pointing towards a potential peak supply being reached for ETH.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • As the Shanghai hard fork approaches, the amount of staked ETH continues to increase, reaching just over 16.5mm ETH staked.
  • With the uptick in fees (correlating to additional income for ETH stakers), the effective ETH staking yield for validators is increasing to 6%+.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Although the amount of staked ETH continues to increase, the total percentage of ETH’s float that is staked (13.7%) is low compared to other Proof of Stake blockchains.​
  • Alternative PoS L1 blockchains like Solana, Cardano, Polkadot have percentage of staked tokens between 30% and 80%.​
  • It is likely that the liquid staking marketshare (currently 43% of staked ETH) continues to increase and accelerate after staking withdrawals. ​
Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics -https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Notable Developments

  • Withdrawals are the biggest idiosyncratic catalyst and potential price catalyst for the ETH ecosystem for 1H23, and the schedule for the hard fork remains on track.​
  • Just this week, the first testnet processing withdrawals went live and were successful. Like the Merge, there will be multiple testnets (3 or more) and a series of shadow forks before the mainnet fork goes live.​
Figure: ETH Staking Withdrawal Testnet
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/02/07/ethereum-testnet-successfully-processes-first-ever-eth-staking-withdrawals/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

Ethereum’s strength continued through the first week of February, with the magnitude of January’s bounce (in crypto and macro) providing momentum for crypto assets. ETH specifically gained ground on BTC after underperforming for the month of January, with the ETH/BTC ratio increasing from 0.069 to 0.072.​

Macro may ultimately continue to drive the narrative in the near term, with several catalysts occurring in Feb (FOMC meeting last week, CPI next week).

As a result, ETH, BTC, and the broader crypto market are likely to remain a higher beta play on traditional markets rather than an idiosyncratic asset class. Although the Feb 1 FOMC meeting gave the broader market a breath of relief with a smaller 25bp rate hike and hints of a hiking pause, the ensuing strength from the jobs report from last Friday could cause ongoing interest rate vol.​

All eyes are now on the upcoming Feb 14 CPI reading to either confirm ongoing disinflation or warrant further hikes.​

Following the period of macro data releases (economic indicators and corporate earnings reports), ETH is likely to shift back toward idiosyncratic catalysts – namely the upcoming withdrawals hard fork in the March/April timeframe.​

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

ETH Weekly Update: Ecosystem Revenue

  • Despite being in an ongoing crypto bear market, ETH activity remains robust, with ETH fee revenue up 50% week over week.​
  • Aside from Ethereum, the notable revenue generators are players in the Ethereum ecosystem, with Opensea (the NFT platform) remaining the #2 driver and DeFi apps (dYdX, GMX, Lido) showing demand for trading and staking activity.
Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal (https://tokenterminal.com/terminal)

ETH Weekly Update: ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • Although ETH gas fees are annualizing to below 2022, 2021, and even 2020 levels (due to ongoing bear market activity), the trajectory of fees week over week has been increasing.​
  • Weekly gas fees were up 26% week over week, annualizing to ~1.2mm ETH, or just under $2bn USD in fees.​
Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • The ETH fee burn accelerated over the past week, with ETH issuance since the Merge becoming increasingly deflationary. ​
  • The previous “trough” supply in November was a net reduction in supply of 6,000 ETH. With the current level of activity, over 12,000 ETH has been burned – pointing towards a potential peak supply being reached for ETH.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • As the Shanghai hard fork approaches, the amount of staked ETH continues to increase, reaching just over 16.5mm ETH staked.
  • With the uptick in fees (correlating to additional income for ETH stakers), the effective ETH staking yield for validators is increasing to 6%+.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • Although the amount of staked ETH continues to increase, the total percentage of ETH’s float that is staked (13.7%) is low compared to other Proof of Stake blockchains.​
  • Alternative PoS L1 blockchains like Solana, Cardano, Polkadot have percentage of staked tokens between 30% and 80%.​
  • It is likely that the liquid staking marketshare (currently 43% of staked ETH) continues to increase and accelerate after staking withdrawals. ​
Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics -https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

ETH Weekly Update - Notable Developments

  • Withdrawals are the biggest idiosyncratic catalyst and potential price catalyst for the ETH ecosystem for 1H23, and the schedule for the hard fork remains on track.​
  • Just this week, the first testnet processing withdrawals went live and were successful. Like the Merge, there will be multiple testnets (3 or more) and a series of shadow forks before the mainnet fork goes live.​
Figure: ETH Staking Withdrawal Testnet
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/02/07/ethereum-testnet-successfully-processes-first-ever-eth-staking-withdrawals/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

Related Research