Proof of Stake

Ethereum Ecosystem Weekly Update

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 2/1/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

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Key Takeaway #4

January closed on a strong note, with ETH gaining a respectable +32% over the course of the month. This was driven by crypto-specific strength (BTC and alts were generally strong in January as well); mean reversion plus a resolution of the Genesis saga (bankruptcy) catalyzed the crypto rally.​

Additionally, the crypto markets were bolstered by a relief rally in macro, with many economic indicators that were worrisome in 2022 (e.g., inflation) showing signs of reversal.

ETH specifically underperformed alts, with alternate L1s like SOL and Aptos up multiples of ETH and even BTC closing January up 40%. A large potential driver of ETH’s relative underperformance can be attributed to staking withdrawals, which are coming online in late March / early April. In fact, the first public withdrawals testnet is live this week.    ​

Nevertheless, ETH’s fundamental engine (newly swapped to Proof of Stake post-Merge) has been healthily and sustainably functioning.​

The focus likely will shift temporarily back to macro in February, with the Fed rate decision and a variety of bellwether earnings (such as Apple) taking the spotlight this week. ​

Nevertheless, despite potential short-term volatility in ETH prices driven by both macro factors and fundamental factors (potential sell pressure from withdrawals), ETH’s fee generation during the bear market remains impressive, and adoption of the Ethereum ecosystem continues to grow.

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January closed on a strong note, with ETH gaining a respectable +32% over the course of the month. This was driven by crypto-specific strength (BTC and alts were generally strong in January as well); mean reversion plus a resolution of the Genesis saga (bankruptcy) catalyzed the crypto rally.​

Additionally, the crypto markets were bolstered by a relief rally in macro, with many economic indicators that were worrisome in 2022 (e.g., inflation) showing signs of reversal.

ETH specifically underperformed alts, with alternate L1s like SOL and Aptos up multiples of ETH and even BTC closing January up 40%. A large potential driver of ETH’s relative underperformance can be attributed to staking withdrawals, which are coming online in late March / early April. In fact, the first public withdrawals testnet is live this week.    ​

Nevertheless, ETH’s fundamental engine (newly swapped to Proof of Stake post-Merge) has been healthily and sustainably functioning.​

The focus likely will shift temporarily back to macro in February, with the Fed rate decision and a variety of bellwether earnings (such as Apple) taking the spotlight this week. ​

Nevertheless, despite potential short-term volatility in ETH prices driven by both macro factors and fundamental factors (potential sell pressure from withdrawals), ETH’s fee generation during the bear market remains impressive, and adoption of the Ethereum ecosystem continues to grow.​

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • We have argued that Ethereum’s design creates the only “sustainable” crypto economic model, where “sustainable” refers to the ability for the ecosystem to generate revenue without paying inflation subsidies.​
  • The chart below shows weekly revenue (normalized in USD) earned via fees from the various L1, L2, and app players.​
  • Ethereum continues to generate the most natural fee demand, which has driven its deflationary monetary policy throughout January. Apart from Ethereum, the top revenue generators are NFT and DeFi apps like OpenSea, dydx, Convex, Lido, and GMX.​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • In our January 18 report, we analyzed ETH fees over time, from the early days (2016-2017) through the latest bull and bear cycle (2020-2022). We concluded that even though the current bear market has seen significant price declines, the underlying demand or Ethereum blockspace (measured by fee revenue) remains robust.​
  • Over the past week, ETH validators earned 17,812 ETH in fees (~80% of which is burned via EIP-1559). The average gas price paid was 24 gwei, well above the 16.6 gwei average needed for net deflation.​
  • This weekly pace annualizes to 926,224 ETH in fees, or ~$1.5bn in USD terms at current ETH prices.​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • ETH was net deflationary through January, burning over 10,000 ETH organically due to heightened usage. This indicates that peak supply for ETH was achieved in the period immediately after the Merge, and overall ETH supply has been hovering around 120.5mm.​
  • If the fee generation of the past week continues, ETH will be slightly net deflationary at a rate of -0.09% this year. ​
  • Again, issuance and net deflation is secondary to adoption. We believe that increased scalability (via L2s) and increased adoption are far more meaningful to long term ETH price than the deflationary effects of fees. However, the fee burn allows ETH to sustain itself without outside capital.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • In addition to being a potential store of value for the crypto economy, ETH is also now a yield bearing asset. The ETH staking yield is highly dependent on fees generated and amount of ETH staked.​
  • Currently, with just under 16.5mm ETH staked and with an annualized 926,224 of fees, the ETH staking yield is ~5.84% (paid in ETH).​
  • Although 5.84% is only ~100bps above the Fed Funds rate (which has created the flight to the dollar and away from risky assets over the past year), this yield has upside as (1) bull market levels of fees will greatly boost the yield and (2) yield is paid in ETH, which has price appreciation potential.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The staking ecosystem continues to grow robustly despite withdrawals not yet being enabled. The total amount of ETH staked is now just shy of 16.5mm (13.65% of ETH’s total supply). Of that staked ETH, 33% is staked via “liquid staking tokens’ which can be used freely just like underlying ETH.​
  • Although there is likely to be an initial rebalancing of staked ETH (which could result in significant net withdrawals) around the Shanghai Hard Fork, the ability to withdraw also de-risks ETH staking and could open the door to more institutional staking.
  • We will explore potential scenario analysis from ETH withdrawals, as well as potential trade ideas, in a separate report.​
Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/hildobby/ETH2-Deposits

ETH Weekly Update - Notable Developments

  • One of the most meaningful developments of the past week was that Hamilton Lane, an investment manager with $824bn in assets, announced its intent to tokenize a portion of a $2.1bn fund on the Polygon blockchain.​
  • In our Jan 11, 2022 report on the total addressable market for crypto, we argued that the best approach for crypto to gain mainstream adoption is to integrate with real world applications.​
  • A key innovation from crypto is the ability to tokenize assets, from funds to real estate to credit markets to dollars (via stablecoins). Firms like Hamilton Lane using Ethereum Layer 2s will be a big step in the direction of graduating crypto from “proof of concept” to real world use cases.​
Figure: Tokenization Headline
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/01/31/investment-manager-hamilton-lane-opens-first-tokenized-fund-with-securitize/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

January closed on a strong note, with ETH gaining a respectable +32% over the course of the month. This was driven by crypto-specific strength (BTC and alts were generally strong in January as well); mean reversion plus a resolution of the Genesis saga (bankruptcy) catalyzed the crypto rally.​

Additionally, the crypto markets were bolstered by a relief rally in macro, with many economic indicators that were worrisome in 2022 (e.g., inflation) showing signs of reversal.

ETH specifically underperformed alts, with alternate L1s like SOL and Aptos up multiples of ETH and even BTC closing January up 40%. A large potential driver of ETH’s relative underperformance can be attributed to staking withdrawals, which are coming online in late March / early April. In fact, the first public withdrawals testnet is live this week.    ​

Nevertheless, ETH’s fundamental engine (newly swapped to Proof of Stake post-Merge) has been healthily and sustainably functioning.​

The focus likely will shift temporarily back to macro in February, with the Fed rate decision and a variety of bellwether earnings (such as Apple) taking the spotlight this week. ​

Nevertheless, despite potential short-term volatility in ETH prices driven by both macro factors and fundamental factors (potential sell pressure from withdrawals), ETH’s fee generation during the bear market remains impressive, and adoption of the Ethereum ecosystem continues to grow.​

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - Ecosystem Revenue

  • We have argued that Ethereum’s design creates the only “sustainable” crypto economic model, where “sustainable” refers to the ability for the ecosystem to generate revenue without paying inflation subsidies.​
  • The chart below shows weekly revenue (normalized in USD) earned via fees from the various L1, L2, and app players.​
  • Ethereum continues to generate the most natural fee demand, which has driven its deflationary monetary policy throughout January. Apart from Ethereum, the top revenue generators are NFT and DeFi apps like OpenSea, dydx, Convex, Lido, and GMX.​

Figure: Top app and blockchain revenue
Source: Token Terminal

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • In our January 18 report, we analyzed ETH fees over time, from the early days (2016-2017) through the latest bull and bear cycle (2020-2022). We concluded that even though the current bear market has seen significant price declines, the underlying demand or Ethereum blockspace (measured by fee revenue) remains robust.​
  • Over the past week, ETH validators earned 17,812 ETH in fees (~80% of which is burned via EIP-1559). The average gas price paid was 24 gwei, well above the 16.6 gwei average needed for net deflation.​
  • This weekly pace annualizes to 926,224 ETH in fees, or ~$1.5bn in USD terms at current ETH prices.​

Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - Issuance and Burn

  • ETH was net deflationary through January, burning over 10,000 ETH organically due to heightened usage. This indicates that peak supply for ETH was achieved in the period immediately after the Merge, and overall ETH supply has been hovering around 120.5mm.​
  • If the fee generation of the past week continues, ETH will be slightly net deflationary at a rate of -0.09% this year. ​
  • Again, issuance and net deflation is secondary to adoption. We believe that increased scalability (via L2s) and increased adoption are far more meaningful to long term ETH price than the deflationary effects of fees. However, the fee burn allows ETH to sustain itself without outside capital.​
Figure: Issuance and Burn Snapshot
Source: Ultrasound.money

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • In addition to being a potential store of value for the crypto economy, ETH is also now a yield bearing asset. The ETH staking yield is highly dependent on fees generated and amount of ETH staked.​
  • Currently, with just under 16.5mm ETH staked and with an annualized 926,224 of fees, the ETH staking yield is ~5.84% (paid in ETH).​
  • Although 5.84% is only ~100bps above the Fed Funds rate (which has created the flight to the dollar and away from risky assets over the past year), this yield has upside as (1) bull market levels of fees will greatly boost the yield and (2) yield is paid in ETH, which has price appreciation potential.​
Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The staking ecosystem continues to grow robustly despite withdrawals not yet being enabled. The total amount of ETH staked is now just shy of 16.5mm (13.65% of ETH’s total supply). Of that staked ETH, 33% is staked via “liquid staking tokens’ which can be used freely just like underlying ETH.​
  • Although there is likely to be an initial rebalancing of staked ETH (which could result in significant net withdrawals) around the Shanghai Hard Fork, the ability to withdraw also de-risks ETH staking and could open the door to more institutional staking.
  • We will explore potential scenario analysis from ETH withdrawals, as well as potential trade ideas, in a separate report.​
Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/hildobby/ETH2-Deposits

ETH Weekly Update - Notable Developments

  • One of the most meaningful developments of the past week was that Hamilton Lane, an investment manager with $824bn in assets, announced its intent to tokenize a portion of a $2.1bn fund on the Polygon blockchain.​
  • In our Jan 11, 2022 report on the total addressable market for crypto, we argued that the best approach for crypto to gain mainstream adoption is to integrate with real world applications.​
  • A key innovation from crypto is the ability to tokenize assets, from funds to real estate to credit markets to dollars (via stablecoins). Firms like Hamilton Lane using Ethereum Layer 2s will be a big step in the direction of graduating crypto from “proof of concept” to real world use cases.​
Figure: Tokenization Headline
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/01/31/investment-manager-hamilton-lane-opens-first-tokenized-fund-with-securitize/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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