Proof of Stake

Ethereum’s Fundamental Catalysts for 2023

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 1/4/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

2022 was a tough year for almost all asset classes. Innovation and new technologies were overshadowed by relentless macro headwinds. For the crypto sector specifically, a cascade of CeFi bankruptcies amplified the pain for the sector and held back mass adoption.

Although sentiment remains muted, we believe the case for institutional crypto adoption remains as strong as ever, and the ETH ecosystem will lead the way.

In our final report of 2022, we analyzed ETH’s price performance versus several benchmark assets (blue chip tech companies, indices, gold). We concluded that although price performance was dismal, ETH’s decline was in-line with declines from large blue chip tech companies (TSLA, META).

In 2023, with a macro backdrop of higher rates and a potential recession, the US Dollar is likely to continue as the risk-off asset of choice. The narrative for crypto to blossom as a store of value is weak.

However, the crypto space has far more potential – it is a new technology that can complement entire existing industries (tradfi, real estate, payments, custody, ownership, gaming).

It is time to move beyond waiting for crypto to “emerge” as a store of value and to embrace the technological renaissance that can develop with blockchain infrastructure. The Ethereum ecosystem is poised to achieve technological milestones in 2023, which we will explore in this report.

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

Premium Content

Unlock exclusive insights with our cutting-edge digital finance platform. Gain access to next-gen data analytics and digital asset products crafted with applied science. Subscribe now to stay ahead of the curve.

  • Research and Consulting
  • Investment Banking and Advisory
  • Sales and Origination
  • HPC and Power Advisory
Request Access Now!

2022 was a tough year for almost all asset classes. Innovation and new technologies were overshadowed by relentless macro headwinds. For the crypto sector specifically, a cascade of CeFi bankruptcies amplified the pain for the sector and held back mass adoption.

Although sentiment remains muted, we believe the case for institutional crypto adoption remains as strong as ever, and the ETH ecosystem will lead the way.

In our final report of 2022, we analyzed ETH’s price performance versus several benchmark assets (blue chip tech companies, indices, gold). We concluded that although price performance was dismal, ETH’s decline was in-line with declines from large blue chip tech companies (TSLA, META).

In 2023, with a macro backdrop of higher rates and a potential recession, the US Dollar is likely to continue as the risk-off asset of choice. The narrative for crypto to blossom as a store of value is weak.

However, the crypto space has far more potential – it is a new technology that can complement entire existing industries (tradfi, real estate, payments, custody, ownership, gaming).

It is time to move beyond waiting for crypto to “emerge” as a store of value and to embrace the technological renaissance that can develop with blockchain infrastructure. The Ethereum ecosystem is poised to achieve technological milestones in 2023, which we will explore in this report.

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

The Merge Finale: Staking Withdrawals (1H23)

  • Despite disappointing price action following the Merge in September 2022, the Merge truly was one of the most important technological achievements from the blockchain industry since inception. With a macro paradigm shift that favors productive, yielding, cash flow positive assets over inflationary growth assets, ETH shifted its monetary policy to the former and became arguably the most sustainable crypto asset to lead the space going forward.
  • However, the Merge achieve solely the most difficult engineering achievement: switching Ethereum from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake without any downtime. ETH that was staked when the Proof of Stake chain (Beacon Chain) went live in December 2020 remained locked after the Merge. Enabling staking withdrawals is a key catalyst for ETH in 2023.
Figure: Ethereum Merge Aftermath
Source: Kraken

Liquid Staking Ecosystem Will Blossom (1H23)

  • Although the Merge had been delayed for years, casting doubt on the Ethereum community’s capability to coordinate major upgrades, the delay was due to technical complexity rather than incompetence. Staking withdrawals are easier to implement, and the timeline for the hard fork enabling withdrawals is estimated for the March/April range.
  • What happens after staking withdrawals are enabled? Bears expect a rush for the exit, where much of the 15.8mm ETH currently staked would withdraw and sell. While we believe there will be some turnover in staked ETH, the ability to deposit and withdraw is more likely to enable true institutional adoption into the ETH staking ecosystem. We believe “liquid staking” will thrive, where staked ETH grows and is represented via tokens.
Figure: Dune Dashboard – Current Liquid Staking Ecosystem
Source: https://dune.com/ratedw3b/Eth2-Liquid-Staking

EIP-4844: Proto-Danksharding (2H23)

  • While staking withdrawals and the flourishing of a healthy, diversified liquid staking ecosystem is likely to bring new investors to the ETH ecosystem, we believe ETH’s audience should transcend just those looking for investment gain. Our core thesis is that crypto represents “tech” more than “store of value” – and this tech needs to be accessible by all users. EIP (Ethereum Improvement Proposal) 4844 will help facilitate mass adoption.
  • EIP 4844 drastically reduces the cost of data storage for rollups. In turn, rollups (L2s) already drastically reduce transaction costs for ETH users. Where ETH is a ledger of record  and settlement layer for all transactions in the Ethereum ecosystem, rollups are the execution environment where everyday users will transact. EIP 4844 will result in miniscule fees for users.
Figure: EIP 4844 Overview
Source: https://decentralparkcapital.substack.com/p/eip-4844-the-setup-for-a-rollup-centric

Mainstream Adoption for Rollups (2H23)

  • Although fees on Ethereum L1 are likely to remain high over the long run due to limited throughput capacity on the base layer (to preserve decentralization), rollups have been the road to mass adoption. Current rollup fees are depicted below. With the implementation of EIP 4844, these L2 fees will be 10-100x cheaper, which unlocks a Cambrian explosion of use cases that were previously cost prohibitive for everyday users.
  • Some of these new applications include decentralized social media (where content creators can monetize posts, and spam/bots can be reduced by charging fees per post), a gaming ecosystem (where games can monetize users via NFT marketplaces and by requiring in-game micropayments), and  more. Companies like Coinbase support EIP 4844 to onboard more users.
Figure: EIP 4844 Effect and Adoption
Source: https://l2fees.info/, Twitter, Optimism

Bonus: ETH Restaking Via Eigenlayer

  • We believe the one-two punch of staking withdrawals (to onboard institutions into the ETH staking ecosystem) and EIP 4844 (to onboard the masses for cheap, everyday blockchain applications) will be the catalyst for ETH’s technological advancement for 2023. However, there are two bonus catalysts to watch in 2023: Eigenlayer and Soulbound NFTs.
  • Eigenlayer is still in early stages but presents a very powerful application: allowing for the restaking of staked ETH to secure additional applications. The 15.8mm represents almost $20bn of economic value securing the Ethereum blockchain. Eigenlayer is a complementary infrastructure option that allows the $20bn from ETH stakers to opt in for securing additional blockchain infrastructure (oracles, data availability) to earn additional yield.
Figure: Eigenlayer Diagram
Source: Eigenlayer Twitter

Bonus: Soulbound NFTs for Identity, Social, Credit

  • ETH restaking via Eigenlayer takes ETH that would previously be earmarked for one purpose (securing the ETH L1 chain) and creates additional utility and yield opportunity. This could help the ETH investment thesis and bring in additional players into the staking ecosystem.
  • On the mass adoption front – one thing we saw from the 2020-21 bull market was the immediate product-market fit for NFTs. NFTs are more tangible and accessible to users than DeFi; large corporations like Meta, Starbucks, Nike, and Ticketmaster integrated NFTs into their corporate strategies. The next trend we could see are Soulbound NFTs – NFTs that cannot be transferred between wallets – which could unlock a new set of use cases around KYC, identity, credit scores, resumes, and more.
Figure: Soulbound Token Use Cases
Source: https://nftnow.com/guides/soulbound-tokens-sbts-meet-the-tokens-that-may-change-your-life/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. 

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.

2022 was a tough year for almost all asset classes. Innovation and new technologies were overshadowed by relentless macro headwinds. For the crypto sector specifically, a cascade of CeFi bankruptcies amplified the pain for the sector and held back mass adoption.

Although sentiment remains muted, we believe the case for institutional crypto adoption remains as strong as ever, and the ETH ecosystem will lead the way.

In our final report of 2022, we analyzed ETH’s price performance versus several benchmark assets (blue chip tech companies, indices, gold). We concluded that although price performance was dismal, ETH’s decline was in-line with declines from large blue chip tech companies (TSLA, META).

In 2023, with a macro backdrop of higher rates and a potential recession, the US Dollar is likely to continue as the risk-off asset of choice. The narrative for crypto to blossom as a store of value is weak.

However, the crypto space has far more potential – it is a new technology that can complement entire existing industries (tradfi, real estate, payments, custody, ownership, gaming).

It is time to move beyond waiting for crypto to “emerge” as a store of value and to embrace the technological renaissance that can develop with blockchain infrastructure. The Ethereum ecosystem is poised to achieve technological milestones in 2023, which we will explore in this report.

Figure: ETH Spot
Source: TradingView

The Merge Finale: Staking Withdrawals (1H23)

  • Despite disappointing price action following the Merge in September 2022, the Merge truly was one of the most important technological achievements from the blockchain industry since inception. With a macro paradigm shift that favors productive, yielding, cash flow positive assets over inflationary growth assets, ETH shifted its monetary policy to the former and became arguably the most sustainable crypto asset to lead the space going forward.
  • However, the Merge achieve solely the most difficult engineering achievement: switching Ethereum from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake without any downtime. ETH that was staked when the Proof of Stake chain (Beacon Chain) went live in December 2020 remained locked after the Merge. Enabling staking withdrawals is a key catalyst for ETH in 2023.
Figure: Ethereum Merge Aftermath
Source: Kraken

Liquid Staking Ecosystem Will Blossom (1H23)

  • Although the Merge had been delayed for years, casting doubt on the Ethereum community’s capability to coordinate major upgrades, the delay was due to technical complexity rather than incompetence. Staking withdrawals are easier to implement, and the timeline for the hard fork enabling withdrawals is estimated for the March/April range.
  • What happens after staking withdrawals are enabled? Bears expect a rush for the exit, where much of the 15.8mm ETH currently staked would withdraw and sell. While we believe there will be some turnover in staked ETH, the ability to deposit and withdraw is more likely to enable true institutional adoption into the ETH staking ecosystem. We believe “liquid staking” will thrive, where staked ETH grows and is represented via tokens.
Figure: Dune Dashboard – Current Liquid Staking Ecosystem
Source: https://dune.com/ratedw3b/Eth2-Liquid-Staking

EIP-4844: Proto-Danksharding (2H23)

  • While staking withdrawals and the flourishing of a healthy, diversified liquid staking ecosystem is likely to bring new investors to the ETH ecosystem, we believe ETH’s audience should transcend just those looking for investment gain. Our core thesis is that crypto represents “tech” more than “store of value” – and this tech needs to be accessible by all users. EIP (Ethereum Improvement Proposal) 4844 will help facilitate mass adoption.
  • EIP 4844 drastically reduces the cost of data storage for rollups. In turn, rollups (L2s) already drastically reduce transaction costs for ETH users. Where ETH is a ledger of record  and settlement layer for all transactions in the Ethereum ecosystem, rollups are the execution environment where everyday users will transact. EIP 4844 will result in miniscule fees for users.
Figure: EIP 4844 Overview
Source: https://decentralparkcapital.substack.com/p/eip-4844-the-setup-for-a-rollup-centric

Mainstream Adoption for Rollups (2H23)

  • Although fees on Ethereum L1 are likely to remain high over the long run due to limited throughput capacity on the base layer (to preserve decentralization), rollups have been the road to mass adoption. Current rollup fees are depicted below. With the implementation of EIP 4844, these L2 fees will be 10-100x cheaper, which unlocks a Cambrian explosion of use cases that were previously cost prohibitive for everyday users.
  • Some of these new applications include decentralized social media (where content creators can monetize posts, and spam/bots can be reduced by charging fees per post), a gaming ecosystem (where games can monetize users via NFT marketplaces and by requiring in-game micropayments), and  more. Companies like Coinbase support EIP 4844 to onboard more users.
Figure: EIP 4844 Effect and Adoption
Source: https://l2fees.info/, Twitter, Optimism

Bonus: ETH Restaking Via Eigenlayer

  • We believe the one-two punch of staking withdrawals (to onboard institutions into the ETH staking ecosystem) and EIP 4844 (to onboard the masses for cheap, everyday blockchain applications) will be the catalyst for ETH’s technological advancement for 2023. However, there are two bonus catalysts to watch in 2023: Eigenlayer and Soulbound NFTs.
  • Eigenlayer is still in early stages but presents a very powerful application: allowing for the restaking of staked ETH to secure additional applications. The 15.8mm represents almost $20bn of economic value securing the Ethereum blockchain. Eigenlayer is a complementary infrastructure option that allows the $20bn from ETH stakers to opt in for securing additional blockchain infrastructure (oracles, data availability) to earn additional yield.
Figure: Eigenlayer Diagram
Source: Eigenlayer Twitter

Bonus: Soulbound NFTs for Identity, Social, Credit

  • ETH restaking via Eigenlayer takes ETH that would previously be earmarked for one purpose (securing the ETH L1 chain) and creates additional utility and yield opportunity. This could help the ETH investment thesis and bring in additional players into the staking ecosystem.
  • On the mass adoption front – one thing we saw from the 2020-21 bull market was the immediate product-market fit for NFTs. NFTs are more tangible and accessible to users than DeFi; large corporations like Meta, Starbucks, Nike, and Ticketmaster integrated NFTs into their corporate strategies. The next trend we could see are Soulbound NFTs – NFTs that cannot be transferred between wallets – which could unlock a new set of use cases around KYC, identity, credit scores, resumes, and more.
Figure: Soulbound Token Use Cases
Source: https://nftnow.com/guides/soulbound-tokens-sbts-meet-the-tokens-that-may-change-your-life/

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. 

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.

Related Research