Power Markets

Going Green is Not Too Hard

Power Markets for Bitcoin Miners, 1/23/23

David Bellman
Key Takeaway #1

“Greening up” your load is possible even in markets without a formal carbon program.

Key Takeaway #2

The value of “greening up” includes PR and some price mitigation.

Key Takeaway #3

There are levels of green that can be balanced with your other objectives and budget.

Key Takeaway #4

Gas markets dropped this week amid economic concerns and a mild weather outlook.

Being green is not that hard, even in regions without an official carbon market. Just last week, 600 thousand MWh REC strip cleared on Nodal Exchange for ERCOT delivery from 2025 through 2031 at $4.35/MWh. (See the Open Interest chart below.)

Interestingly, wind and solar participation in this voluntary market is lacking, even though significant volumes are being transacted at materially impactful prices for additional revenue. Total solar and wind generation in 2022 was around 17 million MWh – and total 2023 open interest is under 12 million MWh. Therefore, miners are likely to be able to find credits at reasonable prices if looking to go green.

The cost of being green can be calculated, and as long as the cost is within a reasonable value for the PR/marketing value of “being green” and for other economic benefits (e.g., price hedge), miners should start contemplating it as mining economics start improving.

It also is possible to originate and structure a bilateral agreement with renewable developers to “green up” your processes. The benefits are not just “going green” – it can lock-in energy prices, avoiding the potential of massive fossil fuel price rises. There are also varying levels of being green. The typical level is an annual true-up which likely means a decent portion of the power was fossil fuels, but one over procured energy on an annual basis to pay for the equivalent load of green power. Most have not done a pure green energy-only true-up, as this would be very expensive – there are monthly and weekly true-ups. A daily true up would be quite an expensive option given the weather uncertainty of wind and solar. The cost of batteries to give that much back up is not likely to be cost-effective now. One could do a monthly true-up and the battery requirement, depending on the region, could be feasible.

BitOoda has the experience to understand your load and help you originate/structure a deal that would “green up” your facility. If interested, please reach out to us to make sure you are getting the best value balance with your objectives.

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Being green is not that hard, even in regions without an official carbon market. Just last week, 600 thousand MWh REC strip cleared on Nodal Exchange for ERCOT delivery from 2025 through 2031 at $4.35/MWh. (See the Open Interest chart below.)

Interestingly, wind and solar participation in this voluntary market is lacking, even though significant volumes are being transacted at materially impactful prices for additional revenue. Total solar and wind generation in 2022 was around 17 million MWh – and total 2023 open interest is under 12 million MWh. Therefore, miners are likely to be able to find credits at reasonable prices if looking to go green.

The cost of being green can be calculated, and as long as the cost is within a reasonable value for the PR/marketing value of “being green” and for other economic benefits (e.g., price hedge), miners should start contemplating it as mining economics start improving.

It also is possible to originate and structure a bilateral agreement with renewable developers to “green up” your processes. The benefits are not just “going green” – it can lock-in energy prices, avoiding the potential of massive fossil fuel price rises. There are also varying levels of being green. The typical level is an annual true-up which likely means a decent portion of the power was fossil fuels, but one over procured energy on an annual basis to pay for the equivalent load of green power. Most have not done a pure green energy-only true-up, as this would be very expensive – there are monthly and weekly true-ups. A daily true up would be quite an expensive option given the weather uncertainty of wind and solar. The cost of batteries to give that much back up is not likely to be cost-effective now. One could do a monthly true-up and the battery requirement, depending on the region, could be feasible.

BitOoda has the experience to understand your load and help you originate/structure a deal that would “green up” your facility. If interested, please reach out to us to make sure you are getting the best value balance with your objectives.

Miner WoW View

  • Perhaps a bottom for BTC price has occurred. Mining economics finally are improving.
  • The S19JPro breakeven price is between $70-$80/MWh.
Figure: Weekly Average Cash Contribution After Power Expense
Note: Assumes a PUE of 1.12
Source: BitOoda, Bloomberg, Coinmetrics

Henry Hub WoW

  • Natural gas is competing for the title of max volatility commodity.
  • This week, gas prices dropped on concerns for the economy and mild weather.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

PJM WoW

  • For the PJM region, we use PJM-W hub as the benchmark. PJM-W is the most traded power hub in the US.
  • Similar to the last period in which gas dropped, power was delayed in dropping.
  • HR is up.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

ERCOT WoW

  • For the ERCOT region, we use ERCOT-North hub as the benchmark. ERCOT-North is the most traded power hub for ERCOT.
  • This week, ERCOT saw a similar pattern as in PJM: gas was down and power did not move.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

CAISO WoW

  • For the CAISO region, we use SP-15 hub as the benchmark. SP-15 is located in Southern California.
  • HR is extremely high, as power has not moved to match the gas drop.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

NYISO WoW: NY-G

  • This slide uses the NY-G hub as the benchmark for the NYISO region. NY-G is the most traded power hub in NYISO.
  • This week, NY-G saw a similar pattern as in PJM: gas was down and power did not move.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

NYISO WoW: NY-A

  • This slide adds NY-A for the NYISO region.
  • This week, NY-A looks similar to the other markets – power is not moving down while gas drops.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.

Analyst Certification

David Bellman, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. 

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.

Being green is not that hard, even in regions without an official carbon market. Just last week, 600 thousand MWh REC strip cleared on Nodal Exchange for ERCOT delivery from 2025 through 2031 at $4.35/MWh. (See the Open Interest chart below.)

Interestingly, wind and solar participation in this voluntary market is lacking, even though significant volumes are being transacted at materially impactful prices for additional revenue. Total solar and wind generation in 2022 was around 17 million MWh – and total 2023 open interest is under 12 million MWh. Therefore, miners are likely to be able to find credits at reasonable prices if looking to go green.

The cost of being green can be calculated, and as long as the cost is within a reasonable value for the PR/marketing value of “being green” and for other economic benefits (e.g., price hedge), miners should start contemplating it as mining economics start improving.

It also is possible to originate and structure a bilateral agreement with renewable developers to “green up” your processes. The benefits are not just “going green” – it can lock-in energy prices, avoiding the potential of massive fossil fuel price rises. There are also varying levels of being green. The typical level is an annual true-up which likely means a decent portion of the power was fossil fuels, but one over procured energy on an annual basis to pay for the equivalent load of green power. Most have not done a pure green energy-only true-up, as this would be very expensive – there are monthly and weekly true-ups. A daily true up would be quite an expensive option given the weather uncertainty of wind and solar. The cost of batteries to give that much back up is not likely to be cost-effective now. One could do a monthly true-up and the battery requirement, depending on the region, could be feasible.

BitOoda has the experience to understand your load and help you originate/structure a deal that would “green up” your facility. If interested, please reach out to us to make sure you are getting the best value balance with your objectives.

Miner WoW View

  • Perhaps a bottom for BTC price has occurred. Mining economics finally are improving.
  • The S19JPro breakeven price is between $70-$80/MWh.
Figure: Weekly Average Cash Contribution After Power Expense
Note: Assumes a PUE of 1.12
Source: BitOoda, Bloomberg, Coinmetrics

Henry Hub WoW

  • Natural gas is competing for the title of max volatility commodity.
  • This week, gas prices dropped on concerns for the economy and mild weather.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

PJM WoW

  • For the PJM region, we use PJM-W hub as the benchmark. PJM-W is the most traded power hub in the US.
  • Similar to the last period in which gas dropped, power was delayed in dropping.
  • HR is up.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

ERCOT WoW

  • For the ERCOT region, we use ERCOT-North hub as the benchmark. ERCOT-North is the most traded power hub for ERCOT.
  • This week, ERCOT saw a similar pattern as in PJM: gas was down and power did not move.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

CAISO WoW

  • For the CAISO region, we use SP-15 hub as the benchmark. SP-15 is located in Southern California.
  • HR is extremely high, as power has not moved to match the gas drop.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

NYISO WoW: NY-G

  • This slide uses the NY-G hub as the benchmark for the NYISO region. NY-G is the most traded power hub in NYISO.
  • This week, NY-G saw a similar pattern as in PJM: gas was down and power did not move.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

NYISO WoW: NY-A

  • This slide adds NY-A for the NYISO region.
  • This week, NY-A looks similar to the other markets – power is not moving down while gas drops.
Source: BitOoda, CME Group

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.

Analyst Certification

David Bellman, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. 

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.

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