Proof of Stake

Shanghai Scenarios

BitOoda Proof of Stake Research, 4/12/23

Vivek Raman
Key Takeaway #1

Key Takeaway #2

Key Takeaway #3

Key Takeaway #4

In December of 2020, the Ethereum Beacon Chain launched, which was a proof of stake-enabled chain running Ethereum’s consensus engine. The Beacon Chain allowed ETH to be staked (more staked ETH => more security), and it ran in parallel with Ethereum’s proof of work-enabled chain where users and apps lived. The Beacon Chain launch was the prelude to the long-awaited Merge.​

Nearly 2 years later, on September 15, 2022, the Beacon Chain and the execution chain combined under one PoS engine, culminating in the Merge.​

The Merge was one of the most notable accomplishments in blockchain history – the world’s second largest blockchain, with $100bn+ in economic value settled on top of it, seamlessly switched from proof of work to proof of stake with zero downtime and zero errors. The Merge resulted in a more economically and environmentally sustainable blockchain to facilitate the ongoing growth of the digital economy.​

However, due to the complexity of the Merge, one feature was not included: the ability to unstake ETH. ​

As a result, the ETH that had been staked since December 2020 has been locked and unable to exit. Since December 2020, crypto has seen a euphoric bull market as well as the ensuing unraveling of much of the ecosystem. It is possible that ETH staking withdrawals – going live today – could cause a reshuffling of the staked ETH composition. ​

Ultimately, over the long run, the Shanghai upgrade enabling withdrawals could de-risk ETH and widen the pool of potential investors, facilitating the next wave of institutional adoption.​

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In December of 2020, the Ethereum Beacon Chain launched, which was a proof of stake-enabled chain running Ethereum’s consensus engine. The Beacon Chain allowed ETH to be staked (more staked ETH => more security), and it ran in parallel with Ethereum’s proof of work-enabled chain where users and apps lived. The Beacon Chain launch was the prelude to the long-awaited Merge.​

Nearly 2 years later, on September 15, 2022, the Beacon Chain and the execution chain combined under one PoS engine, culminating in the Merge.​

The Merge was one of the most notable accomplishments in blockchain history – the world’s second largest blockchain, with $100bn+ in economic value settled on top of it, seamlessly switched from proof of work to proof of stake with zero downtime and zero errors. The Merge resulted in a more economically and environmentally sustainable blockchain to facilitate the ongoing growth of the digital economy.​

However, due to the complexity of the Merge, one feature was not included: the ability to unstake ETH. ​

As a result, the ETH that had been staked since December 2020 has been locked and unable to exit. Since December 2020, crypto has seen a euphoric bull market as well as the ensuing unraveling of much of the ecosystem. It is possible that ETH staking withdrawals – going live today – could cause a reshuffling of the staked ETH composition. ​

Ultimately, over the long run, the Shanghai upgrade enabling withdrawals could de-risk ETH and widen the pool of potential investors, facilitating the next wave of institutional adoption.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • ETH activity has been fairly muted over the past few weeks, with average gas fees settling in around ~30 gwei alongside flat prices week over week. Although ETH is up ~60% YTD, economic activity on ETH (measured by gas fees) has been low as DeFi and NFT innovation remained muted compared to the bull market. This may change with the rise of several Layer Two ecosystems that went live over the past month.​
  • Staking withdrawals going live should not materially impact gas fees, as withdrawing staked ETH is a gas-less transaction. Therefore, after the Shanghai hard fork, the focus of the Ethereum ecosystem for the rest of the year will be (1) innovation and growth of the L2 ecosystem (to onboard new users) and (2) the next ETH upgrade which will reduce L2 fees.
Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • As of the day of staking withdrawals, 18.1mm ETH have been staked (just over 15% of ETH supply), and the total ETH supply has been reduced by ~84,000 ETH since the Merge due to the reduced issuance required by PoS coupled with the fee burn from economic activity.​
  • The ETH staking yield, which currently stands at ~5.75%, is likely to change post-Merge depending on how much ETH is unstaked and withdrawn vs. how much new ETH comes into the ETH ecosystem for the purpose of staking. The flows around Shanghai could cause idiosyncratic price volatility for ETH relative to other crypto markets.​

Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The largest entities that have deposited into the ETH staking contract still include Lido (the biggest liquid staking token protocol) and exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance.​
  • Once staking withdrawals go live, it is possible that we see this composition of staked ETH shuffle around, as institutions that were on the sidelines until withdrawals were possible may solo-stake (or stake via third party non-custodial providers like Figment).
  • Liquid staking could also increase, as the ability to unstake could create a Cambrian explosion of Lido competitors that stake ETH and create liquid token representations for users. This could help increase staking diversity.​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

Staked ETH Breakdown - Illiquid Staked ETH by Year and Price Staked

  • We presented an analysis of potential staking withdrawal effects in a report published on 2/21/23. In the report, we highlighted the breakdown of the illiquid staked ETH (i.e., ETH that was not staked via Lido), which had secondary market liquidity potential since Lido’s inception.​
  • We analyzed the total amount of ETH that could potentially sell upon Shanghai based on when ETH was staked. ETH staked during the euphoric bull run in 2021 that is out of the money is more likely to sell than ETH staked during the bear market or very early staked ETH. We reiterate the potential impact on the next page, with the caveat that it paints a bearish upper bound on potential ETH sell pressure. The bull case is for much of the staked ETH to remain staked indefinitely.​
Figure: ETH Staking Breakdown
Source: Dune Analytics, BitOoda

Post-Shanghai Scenarios - Potential Sell Pressure and Staking Yield Stable

  • What could withdrawal flows look like? Our analysis assumes that 25% of the very early staked ETH (staked when ETH was sub $800) may sell for tax purposes or for liquidity, since that ETH has been locked for over 2 years. We assume that 75% of the deeply underwater ETH (staked above $2400) also sells. While this estimate may be overly bearish, it shows the high amount of ETH that has been locked and underwater over the past 2.5 years. Lastly, we assume that 100% of accrued ETH rewards will sell (resulting in 1mm ETH of sell pressure) and that 10% of liquid staked ETH would exit (resulting in 5mm of potential sell pressure). Note that only ~50k ETH can exit per day, so any unstaking sell pressure could be prolonged.​
  • On the flipside, unstaking de-risks ETH and opens the floodgates for new institutions. In all scenarios, today marks a monumental day for Ethereum!​

Figure: ETH Sell Pressure and Staking Yield
Source: BitOoda Estimates, Etherscan, Dune Analytics

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

In December of 2020, the Ethereum Beacon Chain launched, which was a proof of stake-enabled chain running Ethereum’s consensus engine. The Beacon Chain allowed ETH to be staked (more staked ETH => more security), and it ran in parallel with Ethereum’s proof of work-enabled chain where users and apps lived. The Beacon Chain launch was the prelude to the long-awaited Merge.​

Nearly 2 years later, on September 15, 2022, the Beacon Chain and the execution chain combined under one PoS engine, culminating in the Merge.​

The Merge was one of the most notable accomplishments in blockchain history – the world’s second largest blockchain, with $100bn+ in economic value settled on top of it, seamlessly switched from proof of work to proof of stake with zero downtime and zero errors. The Merge resulted in a more economically and environmentally sustainable blockchain to facilitate the ongoing growth of the digital economy.​

However, due to the complexity of the Merge, one feature was not included: the ability to unstake ETH. ​

As a result, the ETH that had been staked since December 2020 has been locked and unable to exit. Since December 2020, crypto has seen a euphoric bull market as well as the ensuing unraveling of much of the ecosystem. It is possible that ETH staking withdrawals – going live today – could cause a reshuffling of the staked ETH composition. ​

Ultimately, over the long run, the Shanghai upgrade enabling withdrawals could de-risk ETH and widen the pool of potential investors, facilitating the next wave of institutional adoption.​

Figure: ETH Price Chart
Source: Tradingview

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Price and Gas Fees

  • ETH activity has been fairly muted over the past few weeks, with average gas fees settling in around ~30 gwei alongside flat prices week over week. Although ETH is up ~60% YTD, economic activity on ETH (measured by gas fees) has been low as DeFi and NFT innovation remained muted compared to the bull market. This may change with the rise of several Layer Two ecosystems that went live over the past month.​
  • Staking withdrawals going live should not materially impact gas fees, as withdrawing staked ETH is a gas-less transaction. Therefore, after the Shanghai hard fork, the focus of the Ethereum ecosystem for the rest of the year will be (1) innovation and growth of the L2 ecosystem (to onboard new users) and (2) the next ETH upgrade which will reduce L2 fees.
Figure: ETH Fees - Trailing 7 Days
Source: Glassnode, Etherscan, BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Economic Snapshot

  • As of the day of staking withdrawals, 18.1mm ETH have been staked (just over 15% of ETH supply), and the total ETH supply has been reduced by ~84,000 ETH since the Merge due to the reduced issuance required by PoS coupled with the fee burn from economic activity.​
  • The ETH staking yield, which currently stands at ~5.75%, is likely to change post-Merge depending on how much ETH is unstaked and withdrawn vs. how much new ETH comes into the ETH ecosystem for the purpose of staking. The flows around Shanghai could cause idiosyncratic price volatility for ETH relative to other crypto markets.​

Figure: ETH Economic Dashboard
Source: BitOoda Estimates

ETH Weekly Update - ETH Staking Update

  • The largest entities that have deposited into the ETH staking contract still include Lido (the biggest liquid staking token protocol) and exchanges such as Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance.​
  • Once staking withdrawals go live, it is possible that we see this composition of staked ETH shuffle around, as institutions that were on the sidelines until withdrawals were possible may solo-stake (or stake via third party non-custodial providers like Figment).
  • Liquid staking could also increase, as the ability to unstake could create a Cambrian explosion of Lido competitors that stake ETH and create liquid token representations for users. This could help increase staking diversity.​

Figure: ETH Staking Deposit Dashboard
Source: Dune Analytics - https://dune.com/obol_labs/eth-staking-ecosystem

Staked ETH Breakdown - Illiquid Staked ETH by Year and Price Staked

  • We presented an analysis of potential staking withdrawal effects in a report published on 2/21/23. In the report, we highlighted the breakdown of the illiquid staked ETH (i.e., ETH that was not staked via Lido), which had secondary market liquidity potential since Lido’s inception.​
  • We analyzed the total amount of ETH that could potentially sell upon Shanghai based on when ETH was staked. ETH staked during the euphoric bull run in 2021 that is out of the money is more likely to sell than ETH staked during the bear market or very early staked ETH. We reiterate the potential impact on the next page, with the caveat that it paints a bearish upper bound on potential ETH sell pressure. The bull case is for much of the staked ETH to remain staked indefinitely.​
Figure: ETH Staking Breakdown
Source: Dune Analytics, BitOoda

Post-Shanghai Scenarios - Potential Sell Pressure and Staking Yield Stable

  • What could withdrawal flows look like? Our analysis assumes that 25% of the very early staked ETH (staked when ETH was sub $800) may sell for tax purposes or for liquidity, since that ETH has been locked for over 2 years. We assume that 75% of the deeply underwater ETH (staked above $2400) also sells. While this estimate may be overly bearish, it shows the high amount of ETH that has been locked and underwater over the past 2.5 years. Lastly, we assume that 100% of accrued ETH rewards will sell (resulting in 1mm ETH of sell pressure) and that 10% of liquid staked ETH would exit (resulting in 5mm of potential sell pressure). Note that only ~50k ETH can exit per day, so any unstaking sell pressure could be prolonged.​
  • On the flipside, unstaking de-risks ETH and opens the floodgates for new institutions. In all scenarios, today marks a monumental day for Ethereum!​

Figure: ETH Sell Pressure and Staking Yield
Source: BitOoda Estimates, Etherscan, Dune Analytics

Disclosures

Purpose

This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.​

Analyst Certification

Vivek Raman, denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.​

Conflicts of Interest

This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.​

General Disclosures

Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge.  BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services.  BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.​

The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision.  The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction.  The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment.  The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance. ​

Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.​

BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.​

“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.​

Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.​

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