Solar penetration will continue (both in front of and behind the meter) as solar costs improve and utility rates rise.
Additional solar impacts the grid by demanding more morning and evening ramps – some of this could be mitigated with flexible loads.
We saw only minor changes in mining economics, gas prices, and power prices outside NY-A.
As we have previously noted, the power markets are very complex, making projections difficult. The big miss from many major forecasters is the adoption of solar. Visual Capitalist published a report in 2017 demonstrating the consistency of under-forecasting solar installations.
At the same time, they also showed the amazing reduction in the cost of solar infrastructure – over 99% since 1977. This trend of under-forecasting is likely going to continue, with solar cost dropping and utility rates continually rising (see charts below). Ultimately, we expect users to continue to turn to solar and depend less on the utilities over time.
The consequences of significant solar installs for the grid can be seen in California. GridStatus put together historical hourly charts covering several years.
This is the infamous Duck curve, with the belly of the curve getting lower and lower (more solar / more sun during those times). The issue is that there are not many loads that can cycle to flatten this load. Operating an intraday Duck curve actually requires more inefficient plants to run to fill in the gap, particularly for the ramps. GridStatus shows this by showing the net gas generation rising.
Unlock exclusive insights with our cutting-edge digital finance platform. Gain access to next-gen data analytics and digital asset products crafted with applied science. Subscribe now to stay ahead of the curve.
As we have previously noted, the power markets are very complex, making projections difficult. The big miss from many major forecasters is the adoption of solar. Visual Capitalist published a report in 2017 demonstrating the consistency of under-forecasting solar installations.
At the same time, they also showed the amazing reduction in the cost of solar infrastructure – over 99% since 1977. This trend of under-forecasting is likely going to continue, with solar cost dropping and utility rates continually rising (see charts below). Ultimately, we expect users to continue to turn to solar and depend less on the utilities over time.
The consequences of significant solar installs for the grid can be seen in California. GridStatus put together historical hourly charts covering several years.
This is the infamous Duck curve, with the belly of the curve getting lower and lower (more solar / more sun during those times). The issue is that there are not many loads that can cycle to flatten this load. Operating an intraday Duck curve actually requires more inefficient plants to run to fill in the gap, particularly for the ramps. GridStatus shows this by showing the net gas generation rising.
Flexible loads, such as Compute, will actually reduce the response of inefficient gas units. Correspondingly, price in the belly can become negative, creating an incentive for loads to run more. The ramps can become quite expensive, signaling loads to reduce demand. Typical industrial and commercial loads cannot respond to this intraday request. Battery installations have been increasing due to this intraday curve, potentially producing a two-cycle option for batteries to charge and discharge per day.
Miners/data centers can look at a combination of setups including grid connection, battery installation, solar installation, and even onsite gas generation. Much of the cost and time is the connection to the grid; at that point, optimizing how one interacts with the grid is a reasonable opportunity to pursue.
At BitOoda, we have decades of power experience to navigate you through these various options. We understand your business and the power markets.
Purpose
This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.
Analyst Certification
David Bellman, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Conflicts of Interest
This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.
General Disclosures
Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge. BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services. BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.
The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision. The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction. The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment. The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.
BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.
“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.
Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.
As we have previously noted, the power markets are very complex, making projections difficult. The big miss from many major forecasters is the adoption of solar. Visual Capitalist published a report in 2017 demonstrating the consistency of under-forecasting solar installations.
At the same time, they also showed the amazing reduction in the cost of solar infrastructure – over 99% since 1977. This trend of under-forecasting is likely going to continue, with solar cost dropping and utility rates continually rising (see charts below). Ultimately, we expect users to continue to turn to solar and depend less on the utilities over time.
The consequences of significant solar installs for the grid can be seen in California. GridStatus put together historical hourly charts covering several years.
This is the infamous Duck curve, with the belly of the curve getting lower and lower (more solar / more sun during those times). The issue is that there are not many loads that can cycle to flatten this load. Operating an intraday Duck curve actually requires more inefficient plants to run to fill in the gap, particularly for the ramps. GridStatus shows this by showing the net gas generation rising.
Flexible loads, such as Compute, will actually reduce the response of inefficient gas units. Correspondingly, price in the belly can become negative, creating an incentive for loads to run more. The ramps can become quite expensive, signaling loads to reduce demand. Typical industrial and commercial loads cannot respond to this intraday request. Battery installations have been increasing due to this intraday curve, potentially producing a two-cycle option for batteries to charge and discharge per day.
Miners/data centers can look at a combination of setups including grid connection, battery installation, solar installation, and even onsite gas generation. Much of the cost and time is the connection to the grid; at that point, optimizing how one interacts with the grid is a reasonable opportunity to pursue.
At BitOoda, we have decades of power experience to navigate you through these various options. We understand your business and the power markets.
Purpose
This research is only for the clients of BitOoda. This research is not intended to constitute an offer, solicitation, or invitation for any securities and may not be distributed into jurisdictions where it is unlawful to do so. For additional disclosures and information, please contact a BitOoda representative at info@bitooda.io.
Analyst Certification
David Bellman, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report, hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views, which have not been influenced by considerations of the firm’s business or client relationships.
Conflicts of Interest
This research contains the views, opinions, and recommendations of BitOoda. This report is intended for research and educational purposes only. We are not compensated in any way based upon any specific view or recommendation.
General Disclosures
Any information (“Information”) provided by BitOoda Holdings, Inc., BitOoda Digital, LLC, BitOoda Technologies, LLC or Ooda Commodities, LLC and its affiliated or related companies (collectively, “BitOoda”), either in this publication or document, in any other communication, or on or through http://www.bitooda.io/, including any information regarding proposed transactions or trading strategies, is for informational purposes only and is provided without charge. BitOoda is not and does not act as a fiduciary or adviser, or in any similar capacity, in providing the Information, and the Information may not be relied upon as investment, financial, legal, tax, regulatory, or any other type of advice. The Information is being distributed as part of BitOoda’s sales and marketing efforts as an introducing broker and is incidental to its business as such. BitOoda seeks to earn execution fees when its clients execute transactions using its brokerage services. BitOoda makes no representations or warranties (express or implied) regarding, nor shall it have any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness or completeness of, the Information, and no representation is made or is to be implied that the Information will remain unchanged. BitOoda undertakes no duty to amend, correct, update, or otherwise supplement the Information.
The Information has not been prepared or tailored to address, and may not be suitable or appropriate for the particular financial needs, circumstances or requirements of any person, and it should not be the basis for making any investment or transaction decision. The Information is not a recommendation to engage in any transaction. The digital asset industry is subject to a range of inherent risks, including but not limited to: price volatility, limited liquidity, limited and incomplete information regarding certain instruments, products, or digital assets, and a still emerging and evolving regulatory environment. The past performance of any instruments, products or digital assets addressed in the Information is not a guide to future performance, nor is it a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
Ooda Commodities, LLC is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets.
BitOoda Technologies, LLC is a member of FINRA.
“BitOoda”, “BitOoda Difficulty”, “BitOoda Hash”, “BitOoda Compute”, and the BitOoda logo are trademarks of BitOoda Holdings, Inc.
Copyright 2022 BitOoda Holdings, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this material may be reprinted, redistributed, or sold without prior written consent of BitOoda.